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cg15254 6 years ago

I'm never folding here. Villain could be jamming worse 4x like 45 or 34s or even overpairs for value.

cg15254 6 years ago

I didn't really provide any explanation to this, but to further my above comment with some actual analysis: you are getting roughly 2:1 on a call which means you need to be good 33% of the time. His value hands that have you beat are 88, JJ, A4, probably K4s, Q4s, 74s. That is 34 combos. Hands that would perceivably value shove here that you beat are 54, 43s, AA, KK, QQ. That is 20 combos of trips and 18 combos of overpairs. Even if villain never shoves with an overpair and only with 54 and 43s, and never bluffs, you are getting the right price to call. If villain ever bluffs here with Ax of clubs or shoves with an overpair you are so massively +EV it would be crazy to fold. Of course you are going to be crushed or drawing dead occasionally when you call but I don't think it's a close spot at all I think it's a clear call.

Samu Patronen 6 years ago

Not folding. BTN shove is really weird because his value range does not really care for shoving (your bluffs are drawing dead againts his nutted hands). I suppose he can shove trips though.

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