Do I Jam This River?
Posted by Dan Quinn
Posted by
Dan Quinn
posted in
Low Stakes
Do I Jam This River?
BB: $25.26
UTG: $42.81
HJ: $24.79
CO: $64.56
BN: $25.95
SB: $40.38
UTG: $42.81
HJ: $24.79
CO: $64.56
BN: $25.95
SB: $40.38
Early in a session, no read on the player. Bitar reference in his name but only one one table so assume semi-fish but not completely clueless.
Preflop
($0.35)
(6 Players)
Hero was dealt
A
6
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO folds, Hero raises to $0.50, SB calls $0.40, BB folds
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO folds, Hero raises to $0.50, SB calls $0.40, BB folds
James told me to min-raise buttons. :D
Flop
($1.25)
K
4
5
(2 Players)
SB checks,
Hero bets $0.62,
SB raises to $2.00,
Hero raises to $4.75,
SB calls $2.75
This could just bet a fold, but I have a backdoor straight draw!
Not sure how I rank my options here... Probably fold>3Bet>call?
If I call do I have to bluff at some point if I don't pair up?
Not sure how I rank my options here... Probably fold>3Bet>call?
If I call do I have to bluff at some point if I don't pair up?
Turn
($11.37)
6
(2 Players)
SB checks,
Hero checks
Des anyone go into fire turn and river mode on that exact turn?
River
($11.37)
6
(2 Players)
SB bets $8.00
Cram it or call?
Loading 12 Comments...
HOWEVER if he's xraise calling KQ/KJ then I'd definitely raise river. I don't expect it, but if I call and he shows me one of those I'll adjust immediately for future hands: folding to his flop xraises in steal positions more, value raising these spots lighter, and value betting his x calls lighter.
My thinking is that it's pretty likely that your opponent has a hand like KQ/AK/KJ/AA when they raise/call the flop (I listed in order of how likely I think opponent will play those hands like this). Something for "thin value", that doesn't think they can fold to your 3-bet. Sets are still possible, and more likely bottom set than middle (top still possible, but seems very unlikely).
Going back a bit, I agree that folding to the raise is probably better. Seems like you would need some kind of a read on your opponent to want to 3-bet bluff here. You do have a little read on him, up to you if you think that read lets you 3-bet.
Turn - I'd be more likely to bet a 3 or an 8 as that completes the most likely possible draw we could have. 6 seems 2nd best, as we have equity against much of his calling range, and it's not unreasonable for us to have turned a straight. Probably still not enough for me to want to bet here.
River - what I'd ask myself here is something like "how often does he have Kx that calls, and how often does he have a slowplayed set?" I'd probably think that the Kx is more likely as played, and jam the river, but that's just a guess. A $10 betsize would make me more worried we're beat, and call. An overbet could make me want to fold. Smaller betsizes make me less worried we're beat, and I want to raise more.
Having said all that, my line would most likely to be bet/fold the flop, check back the turn, and jam the river, with the river being the spot I'm most unsure about.
We minraised the button and villain flatted out of the sb, I think it's VERY unlikely that he holds AK or aces.
This flop really doesn't hit his range very well so it's a bit of an explo-play to 3bet and take advantage of the fact that his CRing range likely consists of a lot of bluffs as well as a lot of "value" hands (KX) that have trouble facing some heat. If he's a 1-tabling amateur, there's a good chance this range also consists of bad CRs to "see where he's at" like {5X, 4X, 66-88} type stuff. With these factors, I like the 3bet.
When he calls the 3bet, I don't expect this type of player to CR flop with nut hands and then have the sense to slowplay them vs. a 3bet. Obviously he can have those nut hands on the river, but I think the % of the time that we can estimate he 3bets them on the flop is significantly high. I expect him to have KX on this river the large majority of the time.
3 combos 44, 3 combos 55... 12 combos KJ, 12 combos KT, 12 combos KQ?, 4 combos 67, etcetc..
I dont understand why you dont barrel turn
Min-raising is probably not best at the lower stakes. Would rather get more money in the pot with position and initiative. So definitely 2.5x or even a full 3x open.
Folding the flop versus an unknown is probably best. He doesn't rep much, but neither do you. Your 6 blocks some of his 67 combos, so he has mostly Kx that ch eck-raised for little reason and bluffs.
. If you think he has hands like 99 that check-raised for info, then you have to bet turn and most rivers.
Now if he had a hand like 99, he would not bet the river, and since he almost never has a busted SD, his range is almost entirely Kx.
So yes, you should jam in my opinion. You rep a very narrow value range, so Villian will probably call down pretty light.
lol Chael you are thouroughly reading everythingm like for that ;-)
"You rep a very narrow value range, so Villian will probably call down pretty light." If our reads are correct, villain doesn't know what any of these words mean. He's just going to look at his hand and make a decision. I wasn't sure about this spot at first, but arguments here have convinced me that he's very likely to have Kx and shoving river is good.
"Min-raising is probably not best at the lower stakes."
This is a sub-optimal simplification (what a sentence :D). The decision between minraising and 3x does not depend on stakes but on the tendencies of your opponents (obviously) and I´d say the tendencies of the player pool on the lower stakes are even better for minraising than on the higher stakes.
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