do I have to fold?
Posted by LovePattaya
Posted by
LovePattaya
posted in
Low Stakes
do I have to fold?
BB: $50 (Hero)
UTG: $50
HJ: $54.92
CO: $10.99
BN: $62.75
SB: $194.02
UTG: $50
HJ: $54.92
CO: $10.99
BN: $62.75
SB: $194.02
Preflop
($0.75)
(6 Players)
Hero was dealt
T
T
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO folds, BN raises to $1.50, SB folds, Hero calls $1
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO folds, BN raises to $1.50, SB folds, Hero calls $1
Flop
($3.25)
8
3
9
(2 Players)
Hero checks,
BN bets $2,
Hero calls $2
Turn
($7.25)
A
(2 Players)
Hero checks,
BN bets $5,
Hero folds
Final Pot
BN
wins $6.89
Villain is reg and he opens 44% from BU
CBet IP 85 57 54
I didn't 3bet preflop because he has 54% fold and 34% call to 3bet in BU. I think it's better to widen your range with some broadway hands like AJ KQ KJ QJs ATs - but I'm not sure about that. But anyway not 3betting TT here isn't a terrible mistake I assume
His cbet IP is 85% on the flop. I guess the most hands he checks here are Ace-high and it's an easy fold. Do you agree with that?
And second question. Against what kind of opponents would you donk here?
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"I guess the most hands he checks here are Ace-high and it's an easy fold. Do you agree with that?"
- check your reasoning here, its illogical to fold the turn assuming he has a bluff range.
if he bets the flop with his Ax portion of hands besides exactly maybe A9/A8 Ahh, then OTT you have an easy call as he doesn't have the offsuit Ax combos now.
His 44% BTN opening range means he has a host of weaker hands that would try bluff you off your weak one pair holdings. His high cbet% and his wide preflop range means you should be calling down often.
I would donk versus villains that have propensity to check ie. low cbet freq. But donking is quite a broad concept - there are many factors to consider.
Yeah, it's a mistake - he did cbet flop. So tou prefer calling here and I understand why - that's what I wanted to do first for the same reasons. But there are just too many cards I will not like on the river. So I need some strategy to make hero calls against 3rd barrel - on what cards will I call? I think the 3rd barrel will be done really often
Well, ... any non-heart card:
An Ace is good as it removes further combos that beat you and you now beat 98
K/Q/J that aren't hearts. Villain may be inclined to check when he pairs up with KQ/KJ etc since he might fear you now have Ax that isn't folding. So you might not be faced with a bet as often BUT will prob lose at showdown once it goes check/check.
T
9/8 removes combos
all the low 7/6/5/4/3/2
Since your hand is either made or a flush draw, less likely a straihgt draw. he may not barrel river flushing cards unless he has it himself. Maybe if he had decent blockers, but its a toss up.
I simply see villain giving up OTR once you call turn
Ace makes him less likely to barrel with a bluff. K/Q/J - what kind of hand do you think he has if he bluffs on them? this broadway cards will suit for his gutshots or oesd which are the most part of his bluffing range. So, if he has QJ he would have to check on Q/J in our plan, T - makes a staright for him, K - bluff. So, if he bets on J card he will have either Ax, QT or KQ as a bluff - I doubt he barrels small pockets like 983s. If he does, he must have quite a big range of bluff here. I have put his cbet statistics in description. It inclines to call here. And we have to call river if we call turn I think.
I've just put it in flopzilla. I assumed he will 3-barrel everything but weka pairs like pocket and 8x, would check 9x JJ-KK OTR also. I used blank 6s river. And we have about 50% EQ ott and river. As far as I understand these assumptions make it an easy calldown for us
If your plan is to x/c flop, and x/f the turn when an overcard to your pair comes, then your call preflop might be bad.
yeah, true. Now the only question. When will we fold and when call on the river?
Without more stats (cbet turn for example) I would pay that bet in the turn. Most of the opponents who have a cbet of 85% are going to do a second barrel in this spot (when a Scary card appears). In the river we will have a difficult decision without more stats (as bet river, W$WSF, WTSD etc).
In my opinion, this had to be a 3bet preflop, better always play the hands with initiative than oop without it.
Regards
I'd also 3bet preflop.
CBet turn is 57, river 54
WTS 28, W$SD 45, W$WSF 50
Another option is to do check/raise flop, there are a lot of projects there that impact in their range. Is difficult to know the best way without more stats.
there are a lot of projects there that impact in their range - what does it mean in other words?
There are a lot of hands that complete some possible projects/draws in the turn (T,J,Q,7, hearts...)
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