Do i ever bluff catch here?
Posted by Sjankerd
Posted by
Sjankerd
posted in
Low Stakes
Do i ever bluff catch here?
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50 (6 Players)
CO: $54.82
BN: $62.44
SB: $18.00
BB: $183.04
UTG: $54.98
MP: $52.86 (Hero)
BN: $62.44
SB: $18.00
BB: $183.04
UTG: $54.98
MP: $52.86 (Hero)
Preflop
($0.75)
Hero is MP with
Q
A
, , , , ,
Flop
($9.75)
8
T
A
, ,
Turn
($15.87)
8
T
A
9
, ,
River
($36.37)
8
T
A
9
3
, ,
Opponent is a REG whit 3 bet stat 10 %.
My thoughts:
- i think he will not 3barrel/ shove AK on the river, this will be too thin value for him? and i have all the sets in my range he doesnt?
So his range will be capped nuts or value?
- there are enough bluffs in his range on the turn, but i think on river shove he doenst have a lot of bluffs? maybe KQ?
- board texture is to dry to call him 3 barrels
Loading 5 Comments...
I think the play is to call two streets and fold river with AQo. Like you said, villain's range is polarized, there aren't many bluff combos, and your range has many better hands than AQ to call. Of course, the 9 lets straight draws get there. You also have a Q so Villain is less likely to have combos of KQ.
Yeah think this is along the right lines, you should have a lot of 2 pair + to call down in this spot so I don't think letting this go is really that unreasonable. The fact that the draws completed on the turn not the river is also good for you because it means that you're going to have all the straights as you're definitely floating them 1 street. Yes you're gonna raise some straights/sets/2 pair on the turn but I think you probably have enough that letting this go is fine and if it is a calldown then you're really counting on villain working pretty hard to find bluffs which is never a good spot to be in when you're considering bluffcatching.
I would call and lose 100% of the times at NL25. I cannot see any clear value bet for Villain so I would call.
I don't know whether triple with AK would be an options in villain shoes, probably too thin.
If you have AK would you call it down? If that's the case, AQ isn't exacly the same in this spot?
Assuming BTN is playing 3B or fold pre they can have 88, TT, A8-ATs, QJs, 76s and maybe AA because a lot of people will just triple barrel it here even though I think there's a lot of merit to a check back at some point so just because AK is starting to get a bit thin doesn't mean that they're particularly light on value here
Thanks for the insights!! I think its true we can not find 3 barrel bluffs here. Even KQ will not barrel often because he doesnt have good FE to barrel turn, since i called the flop on this texture.
Opponent had QJs. Next time I need to find more combo bluffs to call down.
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