Discounting tainted outs - where the rule of 2 & 4 doesn't stack up
Posted by Colin252
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Colin252
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Discounting tainted outs - where the rule of 2 & 4 doesn't stack up
If say we're drawing to a flush and we have 9 outs, but the board is paired, is there any rule of thumb or guide to use in order to get a more accurate picture of our equity?
I ask because it's very easy in game to be all optimistic about my 9 outs, and implied odds on top, but if there's a chance I'm dead already, or if some portion of my outs give me a dead made hand then not only do I not have the odds to call but also I can suffer very bad reverse implied odds at a time when the pot is large and my newly made hand is very hard to get away from.
How do you handle this RIO?
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Every Board has different possibilities to make Full houses
For example J55 is a Board Where only JJ 55 and J5 make FH+
On The other Hand QJQ is a Board Where QJ,QQ,JJ make a FH+ so These Are Hands that almost Everyone Plays. So yeah basically just Be more afraid of FH When there Are lots of Broadway Cards because People like to Play high cards.
For sure Villain will have 55 or 66 occassionally on a 566 Board and you Need to Account for that but more often he will have something Else so yea..
The formula is not perfect for any situations. You always have to factor in (reverse) implied odds, showdown value and future bluffing opportunities (mostly OTF and IP) as well.
I'm so bad at doing this in game it's not even funny...
It's pretty damn cool that you notice that you're bad at doing it, many people never notice it or admit it and they keep making mistakes (or rather don't learn from those mistakes).
It's one of those things that comes with experience and practice. I suggest posting hands where this spot occurs on forums and asking for guidance. :)
I think it's important to remember the rule of 2 & 4 is only ever meant to be a rough estimate towards your pure equity, and like others have mentioned doesn't take into account a whole bunch of other factors, such as (reverse/)implied odds, the fact that you won't realise exactly 100% of your equity etc. Instead when making these kind of calculations I try and think about how my hand does vs. my opponent's whole range, rather than any specific hand I might put him on (obviously there's only an incredibly small number of situations where you can narrow your opponents range down to enough hands where specific EV calculations are important).
So maybe break his range into managable chucks, of say "value" and "bluffs" then figure out the ratio of these to each other, then estimate equity v each?
U really Need to Identity patterns in villains Play.
Pay Close attention to betsizing, I Bet you that a Lot of People Tend to Bet smaller on paired Board if they have a fullhouse because they want you to draw.
So basically if you Face a Bet that is larger than 2/3 on a paired Board I Would discount some FHs and if you Face a potsize bet on a paired Board I Would basically Discount all Full House combos.... Of course These Are very explpitive assumptions but from my Experience People Bet 1/2pot-2/3pot if The Board is paired and there is a FD.
Also at nl10+ People Will Be more likely to Check/raise River with a FH if The flushdraw Came because he expects you to valuebet your flush and then Call his Check/raise so basically if you get Check/raised on a paired Board on The River you should only consider calling with The nutflush+ and fold everything Else.
So maybe break his range into managable chucks, of say "value" and "bluffs" then figure out the ratio of these to each other, then estimate equity v each?
I am still very much a novice poker player, but yes I think this is the correct thing to do as a stepping stone to the higher level stuff, and it's what I try and do when I'm playing.
Also depends on The Limit. People at NL2-5 will just Bet/Bet/Bet their FH
But People at NL10 may Check/Call or check/raise their FH.
Good example Would Be a 566 Board MP vs BU. I can guarantee you that People will Check 55 56s and 66 Most of The Time on The Flop at NL10+... Lowcardboards favor The caller so The caller is expected to Be aggressive and Fire some Barrels Even with air so it makes Sense to Go into c/c Mode with your Monsters
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