Difficult spot with over pair on ugly river run out.

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Difficult spot with over pair on ugly river run out.

Blinds: $1.00/$2.00 (5 Players) SB: $213.12
BB: $405.56 (Hero)
UTG: $195.92
CO: $234.58
BN: $202.02
Haven't played for 2 month, but villain used to be a fairly tight non winning "rakeback racer". No further reads on him though
Preflop ($3.00) Hero is BB with J J
2 folds, BN raises to $4.00, SB folds, Hero raises to $16.00, BN calls $12.00
Flop ($33.00) 5 9 3
Hero bets $20.00, BN calls $20.00
Turn ($73.00) 5 9 3 4
Hero bets $46.00, BN calls $46.00
River ($165.00) 5 9 3 4 7
Hero bets $162.00, BN calls $120.02 and is all in
My question here is : Do we want a betting range on this river at all? If all our over pairs are to close in value to shove, we might want a checking range, but how would that look like? how do we want to play this river considering our entire range?

6 Comments

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Raise Twice 9 years, 9 months ago

Seems unlikely we're going to get value from a nine at this point, and we're probably not getting two pair to fold. I'd check river to bluff catch missed diamonds, and showdown a winner against TT, 88, or 9x. My range would have all the overpairs, Ax of diamonds. The only 6x I would have and want to shove would be a6s, 56s, and 67s, and I'm not 3 betting any of those 100% from the bb. So I guess I'd shove all my 6x and pick a couple combos of missed diamonds to bluff.

fiveplus5is55 9 years, 9 months ago

Regarding my river shove, i think he can easily fold all 9x,88, TT cause he will be protected with a wide nutty calling range . so yeah, thus we need to check.

But x/c all overpairs are 30 combos, that's quite a lot of x/calling with bluff catchers.
Lets says his value betting range otr is 55,33,99 ( 9 combo, but make it 7 cause some he might raise earlier), 66 ( 6) 56s,67s and a one off 97s ( 8) and also Ad6d and 6d8d (2)so there are about 23 value hands that beat us, to Ad2s,Ad8d, and At-Aq in diamonds and maybe kdqd. ( 6 potential bluff combos) .

We certainly can't call AdA, but most other diamond cards on our over pairs don't really have a big impact .

I am not sure about gto or math behind it, but calling to bluff catch potential 6 bluffs to 23 value hands sounds wrong. We don't even know he will bluff Adqd or 7d8d.
He might potentially turn 88, 9x in a bluff, but if he doesn't i think we can x/f all our over over pairs ? if we think he does, we can therefore add some over pairs without diamond or instead we include our own straights to our x/c range?

Raise Twice 9 years, 9 months ago

I guess it is going to be dependent on how often he raises the flop or turn with his sets. With two diamonds on board, any river A,2,6 or 7 making a one card straight possible, and our second barrel making our range very overpair heavy I think that most villains are going to raise a very high percentage of their sets on the turn and leave them with mostly SD value type hands and draws with their call. We'll be indifferent to calling and folding at 2.4 value combos for every bluff. So if they're always calling 66(6), 67s(3),56s(3),77(3),maybe (2) of the 9 possible flopped sets to account for the times they fold pre or raise the flop or turn, maybe (1) 97s, A6dd(1), 68dd(1) that would give villain 20 value combos. So of the missed diamonds possible would be JT, QT, KT, AT, QJ, KJ, AJ, KQ, A8, maybe A2, A3, A4, A7, AQ if he flats these pre and doesn't raise at another point. A lot of the two overs and nut diamonds I would think put in a raise on the flop though.

In summary, I think we need to decide how much of villain's value range will be played in this way and how many of his possible bluffs get to the river this way and how many of those they will choose to bluff, if that number is greater than 2.4 value combos for every bluff we should fold our bluff catchers (overpairs), and if that number is less than 2.4 value combos per bluff our overpairs should show a profit calling the river. With no reads, trying to decide what his range is really made up of at this point is kind of a guessing game though.

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