Did I take a bad line and make an error in my range analysis?
Posted by Alex88
Posted by
Alex88
posted in
Mid Stakes
Did I take a bad line and make an error in my range analysis?
1/3 Live NL UTG limps just over 300 effective SB limps 500 effective. HERO has KcKd makes it 23. Limper calls SB folds. Flop comes Jc 6s 2s and I decided to bet 36 (which I know is usually big but at that stack depth I wanted a lower SPR on the turn). Also , this player is spewy and I knew in a bigger pot this guy would call off light on turn with any combo draw weak Jack or possibly even 99,TT. Turn is a 6 of clubs (which I thought I should’ve sized out with my large flop sizing) and I jammed all in trying to get called by any Jack or combo draws and he snaps with 69 off suit. Another reason I took that line was because I thought it would simply my turn decision because he’d fold a 6 or 2 to my flop sizing. Is my logic incorrect here. Specifically do you have any suggestions or problems with my flop line? Or more importantly, do you think my turn jam was too thin?
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When you bet the flop, you reduced their range to mostly Jx, 6x and 2x. When the turn pairs, the aggressor should generally slow down, as the defender will often have a higher proportion of trips.
You then proceeded to overbet shove 3x pot on the turn for some reason. That's a huge mistake.
I have no problem with the flop line, but the motivation "to simplify my turn decision" is just plain bad.
The turn jam is atrocious. Even against the range you described it made no sense, it just sounds like you were scared of the upcoming second flush draw and wanted to end the hand. That is no sound strategy. ;-)
Completely agree with BigFiszh,
Thank you for the reply. I’m definitely not thinking I’m scared of the flush draw and applying a strategy to scare off draws lol. In retrospect, I do think the turn jam was pretty spewy and very bad. I guess what I was thinking on turn was this guy would probably call off so wide that vs his range I had more equity than I actually had. I thought this player could potentially call off with flush draws, 77-TT but now I’m seeing how if I thought he would be this wide I never should’ve assumed he wouldn’t have 6x here. What do you suggest I should do on the turn? Tbh, I am new to the site (which was recommended by my poker friend) and am also looking for suggestions on how to implement the strategies presented on this site. I have always been a live player and have had success at 1/3-2/5 as somewhat a “feel player” that understands the math but definitely has a lot of room to improve.
I think you just want to pick a size that targets all his Jx and FD’s, and not only his combo draws. It also gives you room to fold to a turn raise. Just bet 3/4 pot and be done with it :)
Yes something in the mid size bet looks best
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