counterfeit TP BvB with some history facing overbet

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counterfeit TP BvB with some history facing overbet

BN: 29.24
SB: 35.98
BB: 25.70 (Hero)
V 36/36/3b 40 over 25 hands

This guy played a shit ton of tables, like 12 or more, and these are all 3handed stats. He 3bet me the first hand I opened, one or two hands later I could cold 4b AK and he folded. Then he 3bet the guy next to him another two times and I picked up QJo and decided to cold 4b him again because the hand has some TP value if called and I didn't expect him to randomly ship it in. But he did.
Then I played relatively tight for a couple of hands when this hand came up. We haven't had any meaningful postflop game so far.
Preflop (0.35) (3 Players)
Hero was dealt T 8
BN folds, SB raises to 0.62, Hero calls 0.37
Flop (1.34) T 4 3 (2 Players)
SB bets 1, Hero calls 1
Turn (3.34) T 4 3 2 (2 Players)
SB bets 2.25, Hero calls 2.25
River (7.84) T 4 3 2 Q (2 Players)
SB bets 13

Two contradicting lines of thought:

Because of him being so laggy, he could expect me to get to the river with a more marginal range which he could try to mostly fold out with a strong looking overbet.

OTOH my hand looks like Tx a lot and given our history he could expect me to never fold to almost any bet when he's only repping Qx+.

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