Considering a nitty fold OTR
Posted by eaSy_
Posted by
eaSy_
posted in
Low Stakes
Considering a nitty fold OTR
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25 (6 Players)
BN: $22.10
SB: $66.23
BB: $69.18 (Hero)
UTG: $59.93
MP: $22.77
CO: $33.43
SB: $66.23
BB: $69.18 (Hero)
UTG: $59.93
MP: $22.77
CO: $33.43
Preflop
($0.35)
Hero is BB with
J
4
, ,
Flop
($1.50)
5
Q
7
,
Turn
($3.00)
5
Q
7
8
, ,
River
($6.26)
5
Q
7
8
6
, , ,
Final Pot
SB wins $12.49
Rake is $0.59
Rake is $0.59
Villain is 20/10/2.9 after 91 hands.
I know this fold might seem very bad and nitty but considering the player pool's tendencies at 25NL I don't see how this could ever be a bluff. A worse flush would probably bet 3 times here and a straight is very unlikely imo. I feel like this is more of a trap with Axs/Kxs for that sizing OTR. I don't see enough x-raise bluffs at this limit to be confortable calling here, so I think we can make an exploitative fold. Let me know if I'm totally wrong!
Loading 15 Comments...
AcXx would make quite sense, don't you think?
This fold would be so player dependent, so it is very difficult to analyze in a vacuum.
I think I see myself more often calling than folding.
Calling there seems fine considering the price to call and the fact that you're at the top of your range - additionally villain's line looks incredibly spastic to me.
NO!
Losing with third nutflush happens so rarely like 1 in 50,000 hands that folding here is ridiculous. You won't know enough about the player over a sample size of 90 hands to make an x-ray read. And yeah you might lose, but that's poker, we use statistics not calculus.
Obviously call in theory, but if you think it's a fold just fold imo.
In spots like these I'd suggest just filtering your database for river x/r and going through them.
I raise flop fwiw.
You have to bet bigger on turn and river. You now might get yourself in a spot your range looks capped to 1 or 2 pair.
Why doesn't anybody mention calling in the BB with J4cc when a 20/10 raises the SB? Is there ever a time where a 3-bet / fold isn't better in this situation?
Easy call pre.
Explain why
It's more profitable than folding.
Why is it more profitable than folding, if, in the best case scenario we can get (besides having 4 jacks), we are in doubt what we should do when we hit it?
J4s SB vs BB is a standard/easy call. Even if SB is opening 40% we still have like 40% equity vs that Range.
I would bet much larger on the turn. Something like $2.25 maybe even $2.50. along with the River i would bet larger as well. With this Shove i would be calling. our hand is too strong to fold, and if we fold to this line every single time, then our opponent can bluff us very easily because your telling him your only calling with Kx+ Flush and Boats. Its also very hard to flop a flush, and very easy for villain to bluff his 2 pair combos on the river.
How do we know he is opening 40% of hands, if his PFR is around 10%
It's 90 hands, so it might become a bit more around the 20/15 ?
Still, I am still not sure why calling is good here even if we have 40% equity. Don't see a fat margin from calling if we get in doubtful situations where we might either spew or fold to tightly.
Hero does not seem to be knowing what to do with this type of hand post flop in this situation, so why is a call better than a 3-bet in this situation?
If you think he is tight I don't think you should be 3-betting this.
That's also true. Good point.
there are weaker hands then a flush thay he could be value betting, plus, you dont exactly reprensent a lot of strenght, although i agree with you that ch raise allin river are not bluff at this limit, well unless you play against me and im on tilit :)
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