confusing river..
Posted by leadnuts
Posted by
leadnuts
posted in
Low Stakes
confusing river..
Preflop: Hero is CO with AdJc
UTG folds, MP raises to $0.15, Hero calls $0.15, 3 folds
Flop: ($0.37) A hQs 4h (2 players)
MP bets $0.24, Hero calls $0.24
Turn: ($0.85) 3c (2 players)
MP bets $0.54, Hero calls $0.54
River: ($1.93) 6h (2 players)
MP bets $1.22, Hero ??
villain stats: 518 hands AG:2.3
21/15 with 13% RFI from MP.
Cbet: 81 CbetTurn:55
overall I think his flop cbetting range is pretty wide, turn I think he gives up most of his under pairs and broadway gutters like JT,KJ,KT. I think the turn he likely had broadway gutters with FD, Pair + FD or TP+. 6h on the river AND he bet it...I just decided to let it go. thoughts?
*also how do I get the color into my post? i don't see any code or anything. I tried to past my HH into the "new hand history" part but it kept saying invalid hand. i play on ACR, so any help with that would be appreciated as well.
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I would 3bet bluff preflop. As played I would fold river. He's never valuebetting worse and flushdraws get there. He has to be bluffing with a lot of hands like KJ KT JT and he probably doesn't open the offsuit ones in MP.
River is a fold vs a 5NL villain with the stats you provided. Hearts got there and he shouldn't be value betting worse than TPTK, here. Your fold is the correct play.
Folding preflop is very reasonable three betting as well. One thing id never do is cold call. MP is going to have a strong range, we could potentially get squeezed often, and rake is murder. I actually dont have a calling range here unless incentivized to do so. Not to happy with flush closing on river, Resolve brings up some very valid points about his rate of bluffs.
ACR hands are very tricky to convert, you could screen shot from hand viewer and add picture if you want color.
Folding < calling IMO. I'd prefer 3-betting if it was AJs and we were deep. AJo is still doing fine vs an MP 6 max opening range, so folding is way too nitty.
I dont agree with you, I feel folding>three bet>call.... I tend not to have a calling range here, but if I did it would be stronger PP's AQ, strong Axs SBW.
We have 48.9% equity against villain's range. We only need 41.7% to make a breakeven call. If we are competent post-flop, folding is just . . .wrong. Villain has all KJs, KJo, QJs, JTs, ATs, ATo and 77-TT in their range.
yah 46% AI EQ
Jc made a very nice post down below V
First of, before asking yourself if you 3B/Fold/Call, ask if his opening range is somewhat poled. Generally speaking you'll want to 3B IP Merged and poled OOP. AJ here would be part of a merged 3B range(looser one) so i definitely prefer the 3B here. I think the call is my least favourite option for reasons already mentioned. But i'm not folding. Obviously you got to take into account your image so far and the stats V could have on you. Also acknowledge what is his Fold to 3B% (IP/OOP) and his 4B%. All this will help you define if he is poled or not and act accordingly. If he calls than you have a pretty clear idea now of his flatting range.
We got to understand that V will rarely 4B Bluff here, very very rarely so when he calls and Ace spike flop its even better because it removes more combos of Ax(AQ) in his FC Range that could put us in trouble AND the Q removes more (rare) combos of QQ that he could (maybe sometimes) flat vs. your 3B. So i'm really not worry with this flop WHEN we 3B. Now obviously V is uncapped given the situation and can very well have you beat pretty badly.
I think that when you're facing a decision River, you should ask yourself which hand in your range you would gladly call/raise here (nutted) count combos and now ask yourself where the actual hand you hold fits into your range River Top/Middle/Bottom. The answer should be clear.
Fold preflop, vs MP you want a tighter calling range, AJs would be fine though.
As played I'd fold river if you're calling flop as turn is a complete blank so it doesn't make sense to fold on that street.
fold pre? I know his range is tight, vs. 13% opening range, AJo has 50.37% vs top 13%. way too strong to fold, I don't want to 3bet bluff as I will likely get 4bet or flat called with that tight of a range. the only hands he will fold will be ones that were ahead of. the blinds are nits, F2ST like 75-80% easy. I'm not worried about getting squeezed here.
i folded river. i thought it was best way to play the hand, i know it seems passive but against someone who will barrel with worse i think its the best way to play it. if we raise at any point were only getting worse to fold and better to call/jam.
That equity number is going to assume that you're realizing 100% which I don't think is true. It also doesn't take into account the times where you're reverse dominated and lost more compared to the times where you have him dominated.
For example on most run outs I imagine we're losing 2 or 3 streets AJ v AK on A high boards but I don't think the reverse happens as often when he has A5s and we have AJ on A high boards given that he knows we're going to be flatting stronger Ax in these positions.
ahh..didn't take that into account. his flop cbet is 81% and turn 55%. that means about the top 5% of his range bets turn. I gave his turn range:
AsAc, QdQh, QdQc, QhQc, AsKs, AcKc, AcQc, KhQh, AsJs, KhJh, QhJh, AsTs, AcTc, KhTh, QhTh, JhTh, As9s, Ac9c, Kh9h, As8s, Ac8c, AsKd, AsKh, AsKc, AcKd, AcKh, AcKs, AsQd, AsQh, AsQc, AcQd, AcQh, AsJd, AsJh, AcJd, AcJh, AcJs, AsTd, AsTh, AsTc, AcTd, AcTh, AcTs
which is TP+,pair+FD, broadway + FD and sets. (4.15%)
we have 40% on the flop and 44% vs that range OTT.. I cant fold either spot given bet sizing. I don't know if he knows we will flat strong Ax in this spot. I see what your saying, so how do I adjust then? just fold pre?
I think if villain has any kind of understanding of preflop ranges then I think he will. I don't think it's that much of a leap to assume that but you know the average player at NL5 better than I do so I suppose you're in a better place to judge.
I think I would either 3bet or fold pre depending on whether or not I have stats on villain on how they react to 3bets.
If we give Villain a 13% RFI from MP he comes up with 22+, ATs+, KJs+, ATo+, KJo+
That said I think pre-flop is fine just to call equity-wise, even though you could argue depending on his fold to 3-bet that this might be more successful (if he folds a bunch).
Villain will arrive on the flop with 6% three of a kind, 5,2% two pair, 19% top pair, 5,2% kings as Second Pair, 10,3% Middle Pair, 44% pocket pairs as third pair or worse and 10,3% king high.
With a c-bet of 80% which I would assume on this board to be pretty accurate, I would exclude pocket pairs from 22-55 from villains range as he might give up with them.
Btw if we would raise his flop bet now to 1.00$ (not taking into consideration what this would mean to our range), this would have to work around 62% of the time to be profitable, which I think is the case if we expect he folds everything besides AA, QQ, AQ and Top Pair with an Ace. There wouldnt be any value in it though besides getting some from A10 maybe.
On the turn he is continuing to bet 55% of his range (on the 3c turn maybe a bit more), so I exclude all his pocket pairs below Q and half of his KJ. Calling is fine and standard therefore I think.
So now on the 6h River he bets 1.22 in 1.93, which means for calling we need to have an equity of 38%. It really depends now what we believe he is betting with: Is he able to ingrate bluffs like the rest of his KJ and slim value bets like KQ, A10 even though a flush hit the river? Then we still have 45%. Most likely I would think though he is checking those hands which means against the rest of his range our equity drops to 12,5% (which is tieing against his AJ) and it becomes a clear fold.
I think most would be better off playing three bet or fold from CO. Highly simplifies your strategy, puts you to the flop with a range that will push more equity than your opponent, and it great to avoid flops in these high rake games. You can divert from that strategy when there are fish or passive players in blinds.
Sure in a barrel we have equity to call preflop,but that is considering we get all in and we realize that equity. Your perceiving him to CB 80% flop and 50% OTT ( which honestly I think is very high, he would have to CB 55+ all BDFD's/GS's @ 100% freq and allot of Ax to reach that ), so how much of that equity do we get to realize?
It all boils down to your style and strategy and that's the only important point here, for one thing if you at least have one. You either Realize or Capitalize on equity and i think it will be a lot easier to capitalize in a equity capitalization strategy when you 3B merged pre flop IP.
@Dddogkillah Some 100/200z players advocate a 4-7% Cold Calling IP range depending on RFI Position. What do you think about that?
seems reasonable something tight like that
3b as bluff sounds better..i like less rake and it seems like a good hand with decent blocker potential for the top of his range. although if theres a fish in the blinds I will still flat to entice them to come along.
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