I think that I'd be looking to check the turn a decent amount once villain bet/calls the flop XR with a UTG opening range. I'd also be very tempted to call the river. I'd be surprised to see lots of players bet QQ/KK on this river so their value range is looking pretty narrow.

Agreed that the river bet is odd enough that I probably find a call.

Although I think I'd adjust a couple of things in your range breakdown...
- I don't think he has 33, 44, or 88 hardly ever. Closing the action on flop and turns with calls would just be very unusual for most players (especially at these stakes) with a set, against an opponent who has shown such aggression
- I also think that all of the Ax of spades hands can easily be in his range here, especially A2s, A4s, and A5s, unless we have reason to believe that this player does open those hands from UTG.

Hi limp2lose

Very interesting hand. I like your flop check raise, we have every set here and we want to throw some fds in there as well. I would, however, use a much larger bet size since our value range is set+ and the rare 43s and all of those just want to put more money in the pot asap.

I agree with James Hudson that we want to be checking turn with this one, we are isolating too strong of a range with a bet and kill a lot of our showdown value. We could maybe get away with a very small bet but the sizing you have used doesn't really work.

River is pretty close, when he bets <1/2 pot he is representing an A and as a_zuzolo pointed out he has a few of those. However he isn't allowed to bluff very frequently with this bet and I think given all the spade combos, 65s as well as some random T9dd he could pretty easily be overbluffing here. TT and 99 could conceivably be turned into a bluff otr but not for the bet sizing he used. I probably just click call but clearly not a very high ev situation.

Cheers.