Co vs BB - TPTK vs X/R on the river
Posted by Treysix
Posted by Treysix posted in Low Stakes
Co vs BB - TPTK vs X/R on the river
SB: $18.27
BB: $71.47
UTG: $34.12
MP: $16.00
CO: $48.99 (Hero)
BB wins $22.94
Rake is $1.08
Villain stats: 26/22, BB cold call overall:30, 3bet 7, Fold to CB OOP= F:60 T:0 R:0, WTSD: 23, W$SD:58
Hi how would you play on the river in this situation?
Preflop obvious
Flop and turn are clearly bets for value vs pretty wide BB range, we can get value from worse KX, bunch of draws...I use bigger sizing and board is quite wet and I want to extract as much value as possible with my range here. Could also use small flop cbet but I rather use bigger sizing on boards that are not super good for our range. (would rather use it on rainbow board..)
My plan was to bet 3 streets unless some bad card comes on the river, like 4, another diamond etc. We should still get called but bunch of worse KX on the river.
When I got reraised on the river I was thinking what villain could represent with that reraise and I guess in can only be 4X + few two pairs as he would most likely reraise with sets by the turn. I don't expect him having many two pairs here (like K3s,K5s) he could have them but I guess he would also reraise with them on F or T.
Given the line something like Ad4d, 6h4h, 6d4d or 5h4h and possibly 6h5h or K6s (I guess he would fold non FD combos on the turn vs quite big sizing) was my expectation of his value range when he reraise here, mainly because it's more likely he would take passive line with those given he also has FD with those combos. Wasn't thinking about 44 too much as I guess it's not so good call with 44 on the turn for villain given the board is double suited but who knows...
When he reraised on the river I needed 26% equity to make profitable call. The value range I gave him is 12 combos roughly (could be bit more if he slowplays some strong hands and then reraise with them on the river). Therefore he has to bluff with roughly 4-5 combos so my call gonna be profitable.
Problem is, I'm just not sure if he gonna ever bluff here given my range and his range...I represent strong range and use quite big sizing while he can represent very little. When he reraise on the river he clearly represents 4X and sometimes that two pairs I mentioned above. If he's gonna bluff it would make sense to use combos that block top of my range, that would be hands with A mainly in this spot and therefore I would block some part of his possible bluffing range while holding Ah. Hands like Ah5h, Ad3d etc seem to be best bluffing combos here, as they block AA,AK and also some combos of sets while not strong enough to call OTR. (Just my thoughts about possible bluffing combos in this spot shall I ever be in villains situation)
I'm not sure if players on this level even can come up with something like this, trying to represent 4X on the board where majority of their draws missed while I clearly represent strong range. I mean, he could bluff with random busted FD but population generally won't do this enough in spots like this where he can represent very little by reraising on the river...population generally underbluffs on the river, especially by using X/R. Therefore should be fold IMO even tho we have pretty good pot odds...
What do you think, can we justify calling on the river here ? Could he have enough bluffs? Maybe calling with AK without Ah? Would you find any bluffs here on the river if you were villain, what whout you bluff with?
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