CO 88 against 11% 3Bet SB (LAG) Q99 Flop
Posted by aizen
Posted by
aizen
posted in
Low Stakes
CO 88 against 11% 3Bet SB (LAG) Q99 Flop
SB: $12.67 (126.7 bb)
VPIP:27 PFR:20 AF:2.3 3Bet SB: 11%, Continuation Bet 3Bet Pot: 60% Turn: 65%
BB: $10.85 (108.5 bb)
MP: $18.43 (184.3 bb)
Hero (CO): $10 (100 bb)
BTN: $10 (100 bb)
Preflop: Hero is CO with 8 8
MP folds, Hero raises to $0.30, BTN folds, SB raises to $0.92, BB folds, Hero calls $0.62
Flop: ($1.94) 9 Q
9
(2 players)
SB bets $1.45, Hero calls $1.45
Turn: ($4.84) 4 (2 players)
SB bets $3.63, Hero calls $3.63
River: ($12.10) 5 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks
Is it good to call preflop here? Yes I have Position and an "okay" Hand but how can I play it profitable?
I mean I have like 2 outs to hit to get a set. Or I have to hit an Board which consists of cards lower than 9x so I have an equity advantage.
Even if I hit a Board with like 998 Villain can cbet and hope to improve on the turn (every highcard like Tx is good for his range and bad for my) 24 Outs * 4 -> 48% Equity. So if I want to play 88 this way i need to get it in on the Flop to get him to fold or charge a high price for his outs.
Or I can play it as Bluffcatcher Hand which I did on this Flop.
I thought about his 3Betting Range is something like this: AA-66,AKo-AJo,KQo,AKs-ATs,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs,T9s,98s
First I thought he don't have to many Q's in his range however he Flopzilla proves me wrong:
So 58/122 Combos this means half of the time he won't hit the flop. So I called hoping that he didn't hit it. Also his 3Bet CB Value was high confirming my thoughts.
Then on the Turn I called again because the 4 is a blank card and villain is an aggressive lag. However If I multiply the frequencies can I better determine his range ? I mean checking how often he bluffs here and how often he have value hands? On Turn he have 65% Cb which I thought means that he cbets like very much of the turns because the cbet turn value should be much lower.
River is check/check I don't see him folding better hands or paying with worse.
Loading 5 Comments...
Preflop is great
The flop float is fine, when he fires again we should probaly fold.
His sizing on flop and turn seems large for a three bet pot.
I think the flop is close and having the back door equity will make this float able.
The 4d is going to give him less hands ott to barrel that we are ahead of (AhKh, AcXx, etc).
Coupled with the fact he might not continue aggression with all his gutshots, im almost certain the turn is a fold.
edit : When I first look at this I thought we had the club in our hand, probably could give up on flop, especially if he is aggressive and we expect him to barrel often.
Why is it good to call then preflop if we are folding against him on the flop?
We dont flop that well, his sizing is crazy big for a three bet pot, and
if we fold 88 here (pre) SB will print money on our fold to three bet....Pretty standard defend from CO, against OOP three bet.
Well but in my opinion we are flopping rarely well so yes I would fold 2 often to 3bets but I didn't pay him the extra 6 BB. My guess is that we are calling for unexploitable ranges? I mean so that we don't only have broadways in the calling range?
88 is a really good hand :D,
flops a over-pair+, oesd, GS 26% of the time,
a set coming in at close to 11%, over-pair 10%.
We have good IO''s in three bet pot with shallower SPR, and you dont want to be that guy folding 70% of three bet's, do you??

This isn't even bottom of defense range for this spot.....
But it's close to a set mine, if you had a little more equity on flop you could think about floating.
Say no to Nitting !!
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