Classic c/r turn that completes flush
Posted by gremistaAK
Posted by
gremistaAK
posted in
Mid Stakes
Classic c/r turn that completes flush
BN: $90.74
SB: $120.70
BB: $200
UTG: $203.78
HJ: $616.77
CO: $232.30 (Hero)
SB: $120.70
BB: $200
UTG: $203.78
HJ: $616.77
CO: $232.30 (Hero)
Preflop
($3.00)
(6 Players)
Hero was dealt
K
Q
UTG folds, HJ folds, Hero raises to $4.66, BN folds, SB folds, BB calls $2.66
UTG folds, HJ folds, Hero raises to $4.66, BN folds, SB folds, BB calls $2.66
Flop
($10.32)
Q
K
2
(2 Players)
BB checks,
Hero bets $7.89,
BB calls $7.89
Turn
($26.10)
Q
K
2
7
(2 Players)
BB checks,
Hero bets $16.66,
BB raises to $46,
Hero calls $29.34
River
($118.10)
Q
K
2
7
6
(2 Players)
BB bets $45,
Hero calls $45
Final Pot
BB has
8
5
BB
wins $205.30
I think it's a pretty standard spot but have a hard time figuring out what the best choice is. Any insights when to fold and when to bluff catch? Is calling turn/fold river an option?
Loading 7 Comments...
I guess you don´t have reads, so you´re looking for the "optimal" decision:
Just break down your range for pre, flop, turn - and see if you got enough better hands to call him off on the river, depending on his betsize(s). If so, then you can muck it. If not - you have to either call or change your range-construction.
Better than an 8 high flush? Yes, I will have some, not sure if "enough", what you mean by that and how does it help? Dumb it down for me, please. Thanks.
He means enough better hands in your range, such that betting a pure bluff won't be profitable *VS your range*. So villain bets $45 into $118, this means his theoretical bluff needs to work 45/(118.10+45) = 27.6% of the time in order to be profitable. So we need to make it unprofitable by calling 72.4% of our range at this point (the range that we get to the river with).
This is the sum we'd do without reads in order to not be exploited..... with some reads it might be possible to fold river or even turn.
@gremista: not better than 8-high flush, better than YOUR hand (KQ), so, as DanDan said, you have breakdown your own range and analyze if top-2 will find in the top 72% of that range. If so, then you "have" to call, otherwise Villain could literally close his eyes and bluff with any2.
Two things to consider though:
1) We´re talking about that part of your range that beats a bluff, if you have airballs in your range yourself, you can ignore those, they don´t count.
2) It´s likely not necessary to defend exactly that much because Villain had to catch a spade to make a profitable bluff, which only happens 20%, so, even if you´d made an exploitable fold, it´s not the case that Villain could just blindly call the turn and lead the river. Still you should likely defend ~50% (just from my gut).
Everything got clear?
Ha, I actually wasn't too sure I knew what I was talking about, but thought what the hell I'll take the plunge. I didn't actually realise about your point 1...... and now I think about I still don't. Of course we can't call airballs, but I would've still thought that they form part of the 100% range and our 72.4% is of a range including those airballs?
Now, suddenly, Villain donks the river - for 1/2 pot!!! Which means, you had to defend with (1-alpha) = 67%. If you would consider your entire range, that means you had to call with half of your airballs - that have 0% equity, so it´s clear that calling would be nonsense. Does that mean that you´re automatically exploitable - and Villain just found the holy grail? ;-)
No, it shows that your airballs don´t count. In other words, if Villain "bluffs" against the air-part of your range, he´s doing nothing else as if you both had just checked behind - he wins the pot, if you check behind or fold to his bet - and while the result doesn´t change, he didn´t exploit you. Got it?
Probably more words than necessary, but I wanted to get that clear. :)
Thanks you made that really clear, yes I get it.
Althoughhhhhh, it seems to get hazier when you consider which airball beats which airball, or even forgetting that- whether him checking his airball (say all airballs are the same) means that he himself gets bluffed and loses.
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