Choosing best cbet size
Posted by Ryan
Posted by
Ryan
posted in
Mid Stakes
Choosing best cbet size
So ill start off with the hand, and then my thoughts about it in general. Mostly interested in the flop decision as the rest of the hand I think is standard
We get a limp in the HJ from a loose aggressive thinking player who covers. He isn't theory thinking or "good", but he seems good enough to beat the live games, but has a ton of leaks, for example limping instead of raising, cold calling 3b's in sb with things like 65s, etc. I have the impression that he is a bit sticky and is reading into bet sizing and stuff.
Anyways, he limps HJ
Hero is on Bttn w QTdd $500 eff, we isolate to $16
HJ calls
Flop 944hhd
Pot = $30
He checks
We cbet $10
He calls
Turn Tx
He checks
We barrel $35
call
Riv is a 3x
he checks
Pot is $119
We bet $80 (Think 2/3-3/4 is good here. I exploitatively used 2/3 because I think it represents all the missed draws, and I really want him to be calling me with 9x here, so giving him a slightly better price to hopefully never find hero folds; maybe still better to go the full 3/4 because we will have loads of bluffs here I think, however I very well may underbluff this because I expect alot of hero calls when we get here and all the draws miss)
Anyways, I was thinking, on the flop...
When we use a 1/3 sizing, even though it may be good at equilibrium, I think it may not be the highest EV line practically.
A) when we use the smaller sizing with a range bet, I think we bring a player like this close to equilibrium, because he will accurately decipher that we are betting all of our range/may think we have a sizing tell and therefore float wider/check raise more. This obv isn't an issue when we have the better parts of our range.
However, if we were to use a 2/3 sizing here, cbetting $20 into $30, I think we just get more immediate folds. Now I don't know this for sure, but it does seem like this is the case most often in live games, because often when people cbet small in live, they are weak, and when they bet bigger, they are stronger. It seems like maybe this is a population tendency that we can tap into and take advantage of. We appear as the rest of the field appears to get the reaction we most often want, a flop fold. I suspect using this strategy dissuades light check raises and discourages light floats.
So exploitatively, I think deviating from the small bet plan to a 2/3 plan, even with our entire range, might hold a lot of merit here. Just curious if there is something glaring obvious that I am missing here. It makes alot of sense to me.
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he's probably exploitable vs both sizings. You can exploit by using 2 flop sizes. For ex: if he doesn't XR enough you bet bigger with value hands and smaller with weaker hands. If he doens't fold enough, same adjustment. If he overall XRaises too much you start betting less and less middling hands ...
My guess is his most likely response is to float too wide(at least vs the small size, which is something we don’t really want when we have a weak hand. That’s why I was thinking using a larger sizing just makes sense. Don’t have proof that he folds more to the bigger sizing, but think he does. Do think he will under xr vs the bigger sizing too
Agree that we could potentially use a couple sizings tho, like maybe even 1/2 with stuff like 98 or 77 for example. Or 1/3 w 77 and then intend to bluff catch clean runouts
I just don’t want to be too glaring or if balance because I anticipate playing with this guy quite a lot in the coming year
This sounds to me like giving a lot of credit to a player who limps and coldcalls 3bets with bad stuff.
Fishes tend to be fairly inelastic to sizings so I'm suspicious of the theory that he would overdefend against 1/3 and underdefend against 2/3. I guess some of them might.
It’s not really giving him credit though. It’s just a byproduct I think. It’s like if we bet small, someone who has no theory background/solid study history may just continue lighter because of the price. It’s not like an intentional thing on his part, but unintentionally bringing closer to equilibrium because instead of just auto check folding all his air like most recs do, he will call more with air that has backdoors, and possibly put in some C/Rs.
However, he may not auto c/f all his air even for the bigger sizing.
FWIW, I think this is someone I want to at least have a balanced flop sizing against because he plays in the room almost 5 days a week, so def likely we battle it out over a large sample and I think he’s intuitive enough that we can’t just do whatever we please
And the reason I think the second part makes sense is just because of a population thing. People generally cbet their made hands bigger and their weak hands smaller.
just realized something talking with y’all.
The big take away is that the pool and this guy are likely not XR anywhere near enough. Most don’t without the nuts, and guessing this guy can XR but I think he’s still going to way under do it, and if he is to play back it will be thru floats and trying to take away later.
In this environment I think I should just be using bigger bets in general. Part of the reason we would bet small is to combat check raises I think, so if this isn’t happening, I think our strategy benefits from bigger bets
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