25NLz Can you justify a fold here?

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25NLz Can you justify a fold here?

Blinds: $0.10/$0.25 (6 Players) BN: $32.34
SB: $29.65
BB: $38.47 (Hero)
UTG: $32.32
MP: $41.95
CO: $72.68
Preflop ($0.35) Hero is BB with 5 6
2 folds, CO raises to $0.75, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.50
Flop ($1.60) 9 7 4
Hero checks, CO bets $0.50, Hero raises to $2.27, CO calls $1.77
Turn ($6.14) 9 7 4 8
Hero bets $3.51, CO raises to $11.25, Hero calls $7.74
River ($28.64) 9 7 4 8 A
Hero checks, CO bets $25.00, Hero folds
Final Pot CO wins $27.35
Rake is $1.29

The opponent i'm facing here is a nit reg, and my reasoning not shoving turn (maybe i should have) & folding river was : I don't think this opponent can make such a huge turn raise & bet 100BB on river confidently without JT of some sorts. Is it too nitty to fold here, what do you guys think ?

13 Comments

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Foggymurk 8 years, 4 months ago

I'm somewhat new here, and I'm just trying to create conversion and learn, so mind me if I come off as ignorant.

Anyhow, I think folding here is fine, really you're only beating sets. JT here is plausible, and TT. But what seems weird to me is why he would bet so much on the river. Like what does he think you have? What hands do you pay him off here with if here does have JT, TT? Hardly any right, especially the way you played the hand. It seems like a very polarized bet and thinking about it a little more he could have air- or close to it.

Disharmonist 8 years, 4 months ago

Make a crazy turn fold or call river. Villain has enough weaker values "monsters" like sets he can easily play the same way. I doubt he ever bluffs, but you beat enough value here,

ismaithliom 8 years, 4 months ago

Turn fold is out of question... we have the effective 2nd nuts as villain doesn't have t6 and we have a gs straight flush draw. We are getting over 3.5:1 on a call.
Only hand that has us rekked is jthh

ismaithliom 8 years, 4 months ago

Eeewww tough spot.
Could find a lot of reasons to call:
-Nits should only have 4 combos max of jt here
-Hearts missed
Nits shouldn't have t6 here at all and we have a 6
-We are so high up in our range that if we fold here we only ever call with jt

However the river bet is huuuuge and unless he is a bad reg he is only betting straights and bluffs with this sizing.
Nits tend to give up when they brick, not fire 100bb barrel and population at 25nl just doesn't bluff these spots enough.

Theoretically a call is fine but I think an exploitive fold is the move here vs this player pool.

What was villains rfi in Co and river aggression stats if you have a decent sample?

Evuil 8 years, 4 months ago

RFI CO - 18%. No decent sample on the river aggression factor.
However, i gave the hand some more thought and i arrived at the conclusion that i misplayed turn. With the added equity of my own FD, i feel like i should be shoving turn here facing such a huge bet just to punish villain's 99, because in his eyes i still have some sets in my range that he is happily willing to get it in against.
Might be wrong tho, them 25nlz nits man, never showing you less than the turbo nuts.

Tdogger88 8 years, 4 months ago

This is actually a weird spot, but I see 3 possible lines here: a) Shove turn b) Fold turn or c) Call turn, call river.

The issue here is that people are calling this guy a huge nit, but also saying that this crazy nit flat called a check raise on the flop with a naked gut shot and overs. He's really only comfortable with an 8 or MAYBE a J, and even with the J he's behind our raising range a lot.

OTR he could have 98, 87, TT, sets, maybe JT, but he could also be chopping with us. Some of these hands may check back for showdown value. If we think he only does this with JT then 2:1 on the turn isn't good enough for us to call. But that also means we should shove turn. If he never bluffs river then calling just allows his weaker value bets to realize equity. Either he folds his turn bluff that he was never going to barrel, calls it off with the only better hand, or potentially calls it off with a strong hand because we can have bluffs in our range. Otherwise I think we have to call it off.

gyorgyligeti 8 years, 4 months ago

The issue here is that people are calling this guy a huge nit, but also saying that this crazy nit flat called a check raise on the flop with a naked gut shot and overs.

That's the main point. How can a nit call a check-raise OTF with JT on a 974r flop? Once he calls OTF and raises OTT, he almost always has a set (I don't think an overpair would be played in this way) so I would shove turn, cause too many of rivers (T, J, 6, 5, any heart) can freeze the action, and for him would be really difficult (close to impossible) to find an herofold, specially when he has 77 or 99.

ZenFish 8 years, 4 months ago

I think this is good reasoning. Folding the turn is obviously out of the question with 2nd nuts + redraw. The question is whether we jam or call and play rivers.

We can't assume he'll always have nuts here, but on the other hand we can't discard it completely either. Both assumptions would be too strong.

So what to actually do without more information than "nit reg"? Making two turn raising ranges for him (optimistic/pessimistic) and solving the spot in Pio for both would be a good start.

When you're modelling, it's useful to analyse opposite extremes (your best approximations of realistic best case/worst case) first. If the Nash line comes out similar for both (like getting it in one way or the other in both cases), you can be pretty confident in it. As in, you would need to be very confident in your own hand reading ability (or pool vision) to override the Theory in that case.

If best/worst case have very different solutions (get it in somewhere vs one case, fold somewhere vs the other) and the EV loss of choosing wrongly is huge, you have a tough nut to crack.

AggroShooter 8 years, 4 months ago

Pio for both would be a good start.

Sorry to be that ignorant, but what would you model? That precise subgame or from the flop? (yeah PIO noob here)

ZenFish 8 years, 4 months ago

I'd model the game at the decision point where Villain has made the raise.

Trick:

Pretend you make the call, set up pot and stack sizes accordingly and put both players on ranges. Then solve the spot and see what Pio wants you to do further. This will work just fine, since solvers don't recognise "initiative" (an artificial human construct that has no relevance for solving a spot, all that matters is pot, stacks, ranges, and whose turn it is to act).

If it tells you to bet, it will actually be a reraise (we need to do a "trick" for this model where we first make the call, and then calculate whether we should pour more money in with a reraise, since we can not do post flop calculations where we jump into a branch where one player has made an action that the other has not yet responded to).

Of course, you can easily solve the whole thing from the first flop action (you just provide the ranges you and Villain land on the flop with) and tweak the branch where the raise happens (node locker to freeze Villain's range). But just to show you that there are tricks to be made (useful for pre flop calculations where you can save a lot of time).

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