Can we make a hero fold on the river given what we know about villain?

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Can we make a hero fold on the river given what we know about villain?

iPoker - €0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

UTG: €11.48
Hero (MP): €11.37
CO: €12.31
BTN: €10.00
SB: €13.25
BB: €10.00

SB posts SB €0.05, BB posts BB €0.10

Pre Flop: (pot: €0.15) Hero has Kd Jh
fold, Hero raises to €0.25, fold, fold, fold, BB calls €0.15

Flop : (€0.55, 2 players) Js 3d 2h
BB checks, Hero bets €0.19, BB calls €0.19

Turn : (€0.93, 2 players) Jd
BB checks, Hero checks

River : (€0.93, 2 players) Ah
BB bets €1.30, Hero?

BB is 19Vpip 8Pfr from 160 hands.

My question is can we ever expect BB to make this size river bet with QJ or JT or even KJ? BB has never x/raised a cbet so far or 3bet pre in any situation. He seems on the nitty side and has a 65% fold to cbet. He basically has zero bluffs in this spot from what I have deduced.

45s isn't out of the question when calling pre & flop, but I don't think this player would make a river bet that large on a paired board with 45s when the straight gets there, so im not including that in value hands that beat me.

So he can have 3 combos of 22, 3 combos of 33, 3 combos of AJ, 4 combos of JT (has defended JTo previously), 4 combos of JQ and 2 of KJ.

Im just not sure if he bets this big on the river with JT or JQ...So is it resonable to consider folding here in this spot? This is my first time posting a hand so i'm pretty new to this, any help is greatly appreciated!

Cheers.

5 Comments

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RaoulFlush 4 years, 5 months ago

I agree with Citanul. This should be a B/B/B line.
Even if if we would have bet the turn, imo a fold is out of the question as Villain could simply be scared with any Jx (and in BB he should have a decent amount of em) that is scared of a check back OTR.
We cannot simply fold everything below a Full house here.

SACKL3SS 4 years, 5 months ago

Thanks guys, I thought I would have more chance of getting 2 streets of value from 66-TT if I checked behind on the turn and bet river as sometimes b/x/b line can seem bluffy but this probs isn't the correct player type for that move anyway.

I called and he had 22, thought a fold was probably out of the question at the time, but looking back at the hand i had some doubts,

Yeah,,,Maybe he has J8s and J9s too, still only a few extra combos but its enought to always be calling i think.

Mudkip 4 years, 5 months ago

Completely agree with everyone else. Gotta bet 3 times, if you had bet turn there could be some consideration for a fold, but even then it would likely be a call. You see, when you check Turn your range on the river is weaker than it would have been if you had bet (at least in theory and to his perspective) so your read becomes flawed so you can't fold anything even close to that hand strength

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