Can we jam 1 pair on the flop, 200 BB deep????

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Can we jam 1 pair on the flop, 200 BB deep????

Hey all. Interesting hand came up in my online "home game" and I wanted input.

$2/$4
Hero: $980
Villain: $800
V2: $400

Three handed game, all players active pre. Both villains are weak players.

V2 opens $12 OTB, Villain flats, Hero 3b to $44 with AJdd, V2 calls, Villain calls.

Pot $132

Flop Jc10c4d

Villain checks, Hero bets $86, V2 folds, Villain raises to $200,

We?

To summarize -- $418 in the pot and we have $617 behind. I think it's safe to assume villains range is 2 combos of J10s, 3 combos of 44, all FDs, maybe AQo and AJo. Is this a no brainer jam?

14 Comments

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BigFiszh 7 years, 4 months ago

Why? What do you accomplish by shoving? It seems to me as if you just want to end the hand early - before seeing a turn you don't like / don't know how to continue.

jambonbeurre 7 years, 4 months ago

shoving seems a bit brutal. 3betting to give KQ 98s a breakeven calls seems better to me.
Anyway, i expect ppl to have 44 way more often than all other hands that i expect to 3bet preflop or not raising the flop.

Just write lol in the chat, and fold show your hand.
It's a good thing to in a home game online, funny things you know

Samu Patronen 7 years, 4 months ago

Your squeeze size is a pretty big mistake. Making it over 50, closer to 60 seems far better than 44.

By saying "weak" players, do you mean passive or just bad in general? Folding seems out of the question given the game you're playing in. Shoving seems quite alright, although I'm not exactly sure what consequences make calling or shoving better than the other.

ouch787 7 years, 4 months ago

Definitely not a fan of a shove here. You are never called by worse. You said that both villians are weak so why would you want to shove. Plays like this generally are reserved for spots when you are playing a heads up match and villian is down 4 buyins and totally tilted and desperately trying to get even. Spots like this where you know villian is tilted and might talk himself into calling with midpair or a FD.

However, given the play and fact villian raises you here I think a jam is horrible. You say that you are raising for fold equity and to avoid seeing bad turns. Let's look at how many bad turns 11 clubs Ks and Qs aren't really bad as they improve your hand to a str8 draw and don't really hit villians range. 3 Ts and 3 4s. So 17 cards out of the 44 remaining in the deck hurt you. Not enough to warrant a jam in my opinion. Everything else in the deck basically leaves you in the same position you are on the flop. That said wouldn't it make sense to see a turn and reevaluate based on what villian does?

Its possible villian has air here and checks turn after u call his XR allowing you to extract more money with value bets.

Or its possible villian has TT J4, JT or 44 all of which have you crushed and would snap call a shove. If villian continues aggression on the turn you can possibly get away from the hand.

I think your reason for shoving generally applies to spots where youre hand is unlikely to improve and you want to price out draws like if you have AA on a 689cc board and are 3 handed. In your case your hand can still improve and you don't ever want to commit your stack in a spot where you are either way ahead or way behind.

LovePattaya 7 years, 4 months ago

"Ks and Qs aren't really bad as they improve your hand to a str8 draw and don't really hit villians range"
How do you see the range of the villain ?

ouch787 7 years, 4 months ago

Well based on the information you provided we are able to assign villains a range. You said that villain called v2s open and then you 3b which both v2 and villain called. We can assume that since you said he was a weak player it would be safe to assume he wouldn't do anything Tracy like flatting with AA KK or QQ he would have 4b you if he had those holdings. Next piece of info you provided was the flop play where he XRed your Cbet. With that info I gave him a range of 44 J4 JT and maybe TT and all club draws. Would you agree that given the limited information we have that his value range consists of those hands?? I guess I am confused by your question. We can't see villains range but we can estimate his range based on the action. You don't need Pio to put someone on a range lol.

LovePattaya 7 years, 4 months ago

"How do you see villains range?" means what do you think his range is. J4 is very doubtful here. 44 JT TT - that is the top. You said Ks and Qs don't hit his range but KQ and AQ are quite a big part of his range I think. Q9 also

Paid_To_Laid 7 years, 4 months ago

squeeze larger, as played not sure what ev difference there is in just calling or reshoving to be honest it is probably relatively similar, like I am not folding. That would seem rediculous though i could just be looking at it super facilely, vs waterbuffalos i'm kinda fish pumping and just shoving, not that it is correct, just what i would do

ouch787 7 years, 4 months ago

Why do you think J4 isn't part of their range. OP said both were weak players so I think J4s is def in their range.AQ and KQ. may definitely be in his PF range on the flop I suppose KQ AQ might raise w str8 draws so u r correct AQ and KQ should be considered.

Brosauce 7 years, 4 months ago

Good feedback all. In retrospect I do hear you, but if he's folding a club draw at any frequency (and at what frequency) would this jam make sense?

Results are he had A8cc and called my jam on flop

Ulcinator 7 years, 3 months ago

Obviously a very high variance spot, which I try to avoid... with that said, given SPR and how many draws there are, I don't hate a shove as much as everyone else on this thread. It's close. I don't see calling making much sense here... I think villain can make your life hell (still) on almost any turn/river.

Reasons for not getting it in: no club blockers/backdoor flush outs and you only have TPTK. Many future street cards crush your equity and you have almost no equity against sets.

Reasons for getting it in: you have decent equity against his draws and some equity against J10/J4 (although your J blocker makes that scenario less likely) and even overpairs (I think SOME players can show up here with QQ/KK - especially weaker players who don't play the top of their range aggressively preflop).

Not sure what to think about fold equity here. I think it could go either way and depend entirely on the player and their tendencies

Gross spot, but leaning towards a jam/pray given how much money is already in the pot and how many draws are out there. Interesting hand, thanks for sharing.

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