can we fold here....or is it an easy turn fold vs a perceived super strong flop c/r
Posted by randa
Posted by
randa
posted in
Mid Stakes
can we fold here....or is it an easy turn fold vs a perceived super strong flop c/r
Blinds: $1.00/$2.00 (5 Players)
UTG: $193.37
CO: $199.00 (Hero)
BN: $321.28
SB: $21.52
BB: $174.92
CO: $199.00 (Hero)
BN: $321.28
SB: $21.52
BB: $174.92
Preflop
($3.00)
Hero is CO with
J
A
, , ,
Flop
($39.00)
K
Q
T
, , ,
Turn
($111.00)
K
Q
T
Q
, ,
River
($395.37)
K
Q
T
Q
K
Final Pot
CO wins $0.00
UTG wins $386.74
Rake is $3.00
Rake is $3.00
villian playing 34/18 5 handed over 73 hands opened this posistion only once in last 10, he seems like a fish thats has a understanding for game ie positional awareness with riase sizing ect....
what do we think to flatting flop, as played can we find a fold on turn, i dont like posting coolers on here, but i feel this prob is a fold?
Loading 6 Comments...
If you think his flop range is really strong (and I agree that it is) I'd just jam flop. You really don't want an A/J/9 turn to potentially not stack his 2p/set. The turn sucks, he can maybe have the 3 J9s combos, plus the 9 chops, but there are 3 TT, 6 KQ, 2 QTs...If he has all of those hands then your jam is close but good so I guess I probably wouldn't fold. Again think 3b flop is probably best though vs this guy.
What is your range of shove here?I mean KK,QQ,TT you can include in that range?
I agree, there's not much air in villain's x/r flop range. He did open from utg and call 3bet, two pairs and sets definitely in his range. Jam probably gets called by his sets, then we don't need to worry about paired boards OTT or OTR.
Agree with most of this but I'm not sure about the part of not folding the turn to villain's pot-sized bet. I don't think villain is ever going to be bluffing here and I would also discount J9s given his preflop play (he's 34/18 so I think showing up with J9s can be discounted a bit) and his pot size turn bet (again, I don't think J9s does this).
I think hero should have enough better hands to call the turn bet, which is essentially a bit of an overjam on the turn, with his boats alone. I count 16 combos of KK,QQ,TT,KQ,and QTs that hero might play this way. Without doing the exact math at the moment, it feels like hero might be overcalling the turn without a specific read on the opponent if we're dipping into some of our AJ hands to call as well.
And Villan seems like a fish anyway, so even more of a flop raise...
Exploitative also probably not folding turn, think most fish won't pot with a boat here really, not saying regs would...
As usual I agree with upupandaway. I mean even if he is a 34/18 what is he really showing up herre with given preflop and flop line? Also min check/raises from weaker players are more often nutted then not imo.
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