Can we ever fold river and if so vs who?
Posted by Paid_To_Laid
Posted by
Paid_To_Laid
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Low Stakes
Can we ever fold river and if so vs who?
SB: $45.06
BB: $155.57
UTG: $49.63
MP: $58.50 (Hero)
CO: $29.70
I'm curious about your response on the river vs different player types, vs someone that is 2 tabling and playing 22/18/7, not much more info curious about everybody's thoughts in this spot.
https://www.boomplayer.com/25465576_1AFC988372
This seems like a really stupid fold in a lot of ways, but given his turn call after the bet of 50%, I don't think a lot of his range to get to the turn is going to be really incentivized to turn themselves into a bluff. 66,QQ,44 seem fairly likely. Also the other regions of his range just don't seem like they want to bluff a ton here. Curious about everyones thoughts. I'm really curious. On the surface it feels really bad but I'm curious about how many hands actually end up calling the turn, and want to bluff river. I'm assuming his AJo region folds turn. I also assume that 66,44 3bet at some small frequency. Also sometimes like a hand like A6s or 56s etc... possibly these micro guys don't end up 3betting some of the hands that I assumed.
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Given his 3bet %, I really doubt that hes 3betting 66 and 44 vs mp. I dont think we can ever fold given his sizing.
Fold seems super crazy to me
Pretty fuckin unlikely he has a 6.
I just press call and be done with it and use my mental energy on something useful instead (trying to justify folding with top 10% hand vs. a random line is not that, as far as I'm concerned).
As played call in this spot. Looking at some of your other hands I would recommend you review what hands your calling 3bets with pre. Both this and your K9 hand are pretty loose.
What bluffs are you expecting exactly here? AJ? AK? What other hands can he be bluffing that call 1/2 turn bet?
I have over a million hands that say these small pocket pairs vs 3bets when IP are profitable. With these pot odds it isn't even close.
K9s is getting direct odds as well preflop, having almost 40% equity against a linear 12% range. Tough for me to fold +120bb deep. I can be convinced I'm wrong about that. What is the logic in folding the K9? Even if he is 3betting only 8% i still have 36%, and being IP with the stack depth i assume i'm going to realize enough equity.
When ur over defending against 3bets he can remove bluffs from his range and 3bet with value hands only. Btw, his overal 3bet is 8% I guess, against MP his 3bet should be less. With K9 when u will hit a king, u often will have to pay when he will have a better kicker. K9s seems better candidate for 4bet bluff for me.
I don't think SB is going to have 'bluffs' in general here. Mostly just Linear. Really good point about just turning this into a 4bet bluff, and maybe playing KTs as a flat.
Villain could be playing AA KK AQ QJ (maybe?)The same way since the board is pretty dry and you don’t have many 6’s in your range either so they may not have a lot of bluffs but they may have hands with less robust equity than yours.
As for the comment on your low pocket pairs, I can’t disagree with you since I don’t know what you’re using as your metrics. I was making the comment based on a very small sample of what hands your calling with. I can only make assumptions on the rest of your 3bet calling range based on the hands you’ve posted here.
Sorry if that’s not 100% clear. I’m fighting a head cold.
Yeah really good points about his river betting range, and I guess my assumptions are too much based on how I think about it, instead of thinking deeper into the situation.
Well you can start folding pre for instance.
As played, I would bet bigger OTT, villain had "reg" stats but no full stack so I would tag him as fishy and I would want to extract as many value as possible from AQ, KQ, QJ (?) who knows.
I'm never folding OTR, if he has it good for him.
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