Can we call this river?

Posted by Elmar939

Posted by Elmar939 posted in Low Stakes

Posted 10 years ago

Can we call this river?

Blinds: $0.05/$0.10 (6 Players) SB: $10.00
BB: $11.21
UTG: $17.76 (Hero)
MP: $13.23
CO: $11.26
BN: $10.32

SB is playing quite nitty pre (14/11) and fairly aggro postflop (sample = 88 hands)

Preflop ($0.15) Hero is UTG with Q A

Hero raises to $0.30, 3 folds, SB calls $0.25, BB folds

Flop ($0.70) 7 Q 6

SB bets $0.40, Hero calls $0.40

Strange donk, did not know what to make from it

Turn ($1.50) 7 Q 6 3

SB bets $0.80, Hero calls $0.80

River ($3.10) 7 Q 6 3 4

SB checks, Hero bets $2.00, SB raises to $5.50, Hero

Wanted to get value from QJ/QK and possibly QT. The c/r seems really strange. Only 55 is in his range to make a straight (but wouldn't be suprised if he folds that pre). Don't see him call with 76s pre and we block most QdXd combos. So there should be quite a lot of random bluffs in his range here right?

So what do you think? Are there enough bluffs in his range to make this call profitable?

10 Comments

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DDonkeyKong 10 years ago

Easy bet/fold. He can have flushes and straights and 14/11 is never bluffing here especially with this sizing. And you are at the bottom of your value betting range anyway.

ILoseFlips 10 years ago

I would maybe have bet smaller OTR because it's a pretty thin value bet. Standard fold vs his raise.

We could make an argument for raising turn as his sizing looks weak and there are bad rivers

Elmar939 10 years ago

I know folding is standard here but I can't see villain taking this line with a hand, or is there something wrong with my way of thinking?

Disharmonist 10 years ago

No, it´s called leveling :) You think he thinks that he cannot lead this river with a single pair for value but once you bet he figures you cannot call with less than a five and there turn a marginal made hand into a bluff. But you give too much respect to a NL 10 nit and therefore give him more value than he even deserves.

SPrince 10 years ago

Dont think a nit raises a set and or checks it on the turn, so hes repping 55, QT,QJ,KQdd.
Probably Qxdd makes most sense with this line and close to zero bluffs in his range, bet/fold.

taaazz 10 years ago

Agreed, but I don't like the sizing otr. I'm not sure we have a thin vbet here in the first place given he's a nit (prob not), and if so, I'd make it ridiculously small - like 1/5-1/4 psb. I believe we just iso ourselves with a big ass sizing.