Calling river allin with top pair?
Posted by Akame
Posted by
Akame
posted in
Low Stakes
Calling river allin with top pair?
https://mygame.mypartypokerlive.com/share/replayer?id=5fc95f4446ff2a2a62e962fa
no reads on villain
PREFLOP
My 3bet calling range: JJ-55, AQs-A8s, K9s+, QTs+, J9s+, T9s, 98s, AQo-AJo, KQo
I would also 4bet some of those hands from time to time.
FLOP
I'm not sure if I should have a raising range here, I'm IP in a 3bet pot, the board is dry, good for villains range so I usually never raise here, but he is betting small size probably with very wide range so I think villain would fold a lot to raises, therefore having a polar raising range makes sense to me, what do you think?
If I play this flop just call or fold I would call all my pp except 55, all my Jack pairs and most of my low showdown value hands with backdoor flush+straight draw: JJ-66, AJs, AhQh, AhTh-Ah8h, AcQc, AcTc-Ac8c, AdQd, AdTd-Ad8d, KJs, KhQh, KhTh, KcQc, KcTc, KdQd, KdTd, QJs, QhTh, QcTc, QdTd, J9s+, Th9h, Tc9c, Td9d, AJo
TURN
He bets 2/3 pot on a brick turn. He's probably just betting his overpairs, a set(JJ) and AJs, maybe even KJs(I'm not sure if he would 3bet KJs preflop). He's bluffing with his diamond flush draws, and A4s could also be there.
I'm calling with all my A high flush draws, sets and pairs (AJ,KJs for value, J9s,JTs,QJs blocks his value range and unblocks his bluffs and they can also make 2 pair): JJ, 66, AJs, AdQd, AdTd-Ad8d, KJs, QJs, J9s+, AJo
RIVER
he bets allin, I need to call 3/4 pot.
All of his turn bluffs except non diamond A4s gets there, so I don't think he can have many bluffs on this river.
I'm definitely calling with all my flushes and AJo with A of diamond, the best bluff catcher. I think J9s, QJs, KJs can be easily folded, maybe even AJs.
The rest of my range, sets and two pairs (JJ, 66, JTs) call? If villains's betting his overpairs beside flushes then for sure, but I have no idea if he would actually bet with those hands.
your thoughts?, thanks:)
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One quick way to look at these spots is to simply play your entire range as if you only had KJs (KJcc, KJss, KJcc). With all 3 combos we call down on most non diamond rivers and can fold vs 3rd barrel on any diamond, especially the Td & Qd. We potentially have some BDFD's and pair+BDFD that get there. We have sets (based on your calling range). We have AJ here. The offsuit T's aren't horrible cards but the Td is really bad and a significant equity shifter into your opponents favor.
In your case, he needs you to fold 43% of the time to break even on bluffs. You have to defend 57%, so a little more than 1/2 your range. KJ is a significantly better call on the other Tx.
I have zero problem with an exploitative fold on the river. Hand seems well played up to the decision point.
Thanks for replying:)
Okay, my mdf is 57% but do I really need to defend that much on such a bad river card? In theory can I defend more/less on different river cards, depending on whose range does the river card favours or should I always try to defend to the exact %?
On the off suit T I can defend 57% with more equity than on Td.
To reach 57% mdf on Td I would also need to call 3combos of AJ without Ad blocker, I think those hands are -EV calls, so should I call with my -EV hands just to reach my mdf?
I can plug it into a solver if you send me the details, can't open that website for some reason.
And yes, some textures/cards = overfold, mdf is useful but not applicable everytime.
Akame I think you can overfold here on the bad cards and not really get punished for it. It's against an unknown so we kind of have to go with what we know of the pool. Most pools have passivity/calling leaks in the smaller stakes. So, against a passive profile, easy fold. Against an aggressive profile, it's probably closer since there is the potential of AdXx to bluff here but that is still kind of a stretch.
Based on bet sizing on flop/turn, there is potential for you to back into some flushes too (I didn't go back and replay the hand again today). I think there were potentially a few pair+Nut BDFD on that board so I think you are going to be still defending close to often enough even when we get this bad river.
Mudkip That would be great, hand:
effective stack: 5.27$, I'm holding KcJc
I open raise in the CO to 2.5bb(0.12$), folds to the BB, BB raises to 0.55$, I call.
Flop: 3cJd6h, pot: 1.14$, e.s.: 4.72$
BB bets 0.36$, I call.
Turn: 5d, pot: 1.86$, e.s.: 4.36$
BB bets 1.19$, I call.
River: Td, pot: 4.24$, e.s.: 3.17$
BB shoves, I fold.
HawksWin I was calling his turn bet with only A high FD, so I only have 3 combos of flushes on this river. But if I would also call turn with K high FD then I could fold AJ to his river shove since I have more flushes to call him down and I would still be defending close to 57%.
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