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Calling based on Minimum Defense Frequency vs. based on Pot Odds

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Calling based on Minimum Defense Frequency vs. based on Pot Odds

I have recently been studying the minimum defense frequency when facing aggression and I do think I have a grasp on the concept. However, it struck me that the MDF logic is fundamentally different that the thought process that we have learned traditionally when facing aggression, which is calling based on pot odds. How do these concepts relate to each other in theory? When do we use which approach in game? I elaborate my question below...

If we simplify and only look at end of action spots (e.g. facing a bet on the river), then the logic goes like this:

1. Calling based on Minimum Defense Frequency
This is the game-theory optimal percentage of our range that we should call in order to prevent Villain from making auto-profit against us by adding any more bluffs to his range. In essence, calling based on the MDF means that Villain won't have any auto-profit with his bet, can't just bet any-two cards, and as the caller we remain unexploitable by bluffs.

The MDF is calculated using
MDF = 1 - Bet/(Pot+Bet). E.g. for a half pot size bet, the MDF is 1 - 0.5/(1+0.5) = 0.67.

If we call 67% of the time and win against Villain's bluffs, then the EV for Villain to add any further bluffs to his range is 0.

2. Calling based on Pot Odds
The traditional approach to facing aggression on the river is based on a formula calculating the required equity that we need with our hand against Villain's range and then see whether our hand actually beats this portion of Villain's range:

Required Equity = Bet / (Pot + Bet + Our bet if we call). E.g. for a half pot size bet, we would need to win 0.5 / (1+0.5+0.5) = 0.25, so our hand needs to win 25% of the time.

3. My Question
So I have the feeling that these two concepts stand in sharp contrast to each other. Using the MDF, we look at the portion of our range that we need to call in order to remain unexploitable by bluffs. Based on pot odds, we actually call the portion of hands that makes the call a winning play. Isn't it possible that even when we call using the MDF, we are overall loosing money? E.g. it might be that we call 67% of our range vs. Villain but not all out of these hands have at least 25% equity vs. Villain's range. Wouldn't the MDF need to take way more factors into account, e.g. our and Villain's position, board texture, ranges etc.?

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HawksWin 4 years, 2 months ago

https://upswingpoker.com/minimum-defense-frequency-vs-pot-odds/

This is a pretty good article from Upswing (free articles) that discusses this. One of the main takeaways from the article is that MDF will be used more off table unless you are playing in unknown environments or unknown opponents. I play anonymous games so I use it a bit more but honestly I use it more when I am deciding to bet to see what fold equity I need vs using it to make calls. I think pot odds are probably more effective to use for calling decisions (especially in unbalanced pools).

Samu Patronen 4 years, 2 months ago

Using the MDF, we look at the portion of our range that we need to call in order to remain unexploitable by bluffs. Based on pot odds, we actually call the portion of hands that makes the call a winning play.

You got it.

MDF is not applicaple in all situations, it is most useful in pure bluffcatching situations on the river.

whiteshark 4 years, 2 months ago

What I am asking myself is whether in theory these two formulas boil down to the same thing. So if whether against an optimally balanced player betting 50% potsize, calling with the hands that have 25% equity against Villain's range is the same as calling with 67% of our holdings. So I am basically searching for a link between the two, since they both seem sensible.

RaoulFlush 4 years, 2 months ago

Therefore potodds and MDF often spit out kind of similar numbers, they seem to be connected somehow. But there is some huge differences.
The use of MDF is basically to prevent us from beeing exploited by specific betsizes from Villain.
Will try some dumb toy games to show that there basically is no real connection between potodds and MDF.
Imagine a HU match where we are BB. SB minopens, we flat/check.
Villain bets pot, 4x pot or goes all in for 100x pot. This is really difficult to defend as we rarely get the correct potodds to call an 100x PSB. Here MDF can be usefull as we have to defend this strategy somehow. But MDF can be pretty problematical in this sense:
Same toy game. But this time SB is only allowed to raise AA and BB is only allowed to defend 23o. Unluckily we both get these hands and face an AAK flop and after checking our nutlow SB again decides to jam 100x PSB....
So we basically have 0% equity in this spot with 23o. But MDF doesnt allow us to fold our whole range (as this would be exploitable). So basically MDF would force us to make a call in this spot with 0% equity.
Even though this is far from a realistic example, it shows some huge problems of MDF. Even though these numbers often look like sort of potodds related, they are not.
So if we play opponents that are unable to exxploit us with certain betsizes (That obviously could also be way lower than these overbets here!) we should usually just look at our potodds until the river. And even OTR in most circumstances defending below MDF will be the better play, as we will see the nuts too often when we face huge bet.
So if we face an 4x riverbet, its fine to basically fold everything but the nuts usually. Even though this would be a mistake in mdf-land.

whiteshark 4 years, 2 months ago

I completely agree that in practice, calling based on pot odds is the way better and more flexible approach. Based on population reads (which we'll basically always have) and stats/notes on Villain (which we'll sometimes have), we can put Villain on ranges of value/bluff-combos and see whether we have the necessary equity against that.

Besides our strategy in gameplay, my goal is to also get a sound theoretical understanding so I read a bit into Janda's Applications of NLHE book. Apart from some toy games with restriced ranges (which is of course unrealistic :-) ), it seems to me that there is a direct relation between calling based on MDF and calling based on pot odds in theory, that is, in optimal play.

I think the key to this is that Janda outlines how we can derive the optimal value/bluff-ratio as a bettor on the river for any given betsize (e.g. in Chapter 1.7 Making Our Opponent Indifferent to Calling on the River). If we stick to the example of a 50% potsize bet in the original post, then the optimal value/bluff-ratio of the bettor is 3:1. That is the bettor is going to have 75% value bets and 25% bluffs in his range. In GTO-land, the bettor has no incentive to bluff any more than that since the caller will defend based on the MDF and win against all his bluffs. Hence the EV of adding any further bluff combo to his betting range is 0.

Assuming that all of the bettor's value bets win at showdown and all of his bluffs loose, then the caller will beat exactly 25% of the bettor's range, since the bets consists of 75% value and 25% bluffs as derived from the half potsize bet. This means: In GTO-land, as I understand it, both concepts for calling apply simultaneously on the river. The caller will call his bluff-catchers which have exactly 25% equity vs. the bettor's range (application of Pot Odds). But the caller will only do this with 50% of his range (application of the MDF) since he's up against a balance betting range and is indiffierent to add any further bluff catchers to his calling range apart from what is dictated by the MDF. This is because through the balanced betting range, the EV of adding any further bluffcatcher to the calling range has an EV of 0.

The bettor makes the caller indifferent to calling any further bluff catcher apart from what is dictated by the MDF and the caller makes the bettor indifferent to add any further bluff to his betting range apart from the value/bluff-ration that is dictated by his betsize. So in optimal play, I think there is not even a discrepancy between calling based on MDF or on Pot Odds. They go hand in hand.

Of course, there is a large discrepancy when we play against unbalanced opponents.

What do you think of this?

sjfraley1975 4 years, 2 months ago

Keep in mind that some game theory concepts like MDF really only make sense to apply in situations where we are facing opponents who are playing in a way that (either intentionally or unintentionally) is doing close enough to the right thing GTO wise. Using MDF specifically as an example, the whole purpose of it is to prevent our opponents bluffs from being profitable entirely on their own. An opponent who isn't bluffing enough in a given spot isn't something to be concerned about in this regard and as such we are better off just using pot odds vs. his range. An opponent who, on the other hand, is bluffing at least enough is someone who we will lose money to over the long run if we don't defend enough of our hands. That is when MDF would be a concern.

RaoulFlush 4 years, 2 months ago

Balance is the main term here to take into account. Both concepts are somwehat related to indifference. As a reminder: Indifference (also known as equlibrium) is a point where neither player can switch their options to gain more EV from the other player. This is basically what all this GTO-stuff is about.
To take your example: We raise and face a 3bet of half pot. Our hand/range needs 25% potodds to make a call here.
So if we have a hand/range that has exactly 25% equity vs the 3betting-range neither of us is making/loosing money in this spot.
So imagine raising KK here and facing this 3bet and like a miracle we know villain has AA here always. We dont have 25% vs this hand. So we should be folding this every single time.
BUT if we look at the mdf (that doesnt care about ranges, equities and so on) we should be defending 66% of the times here (so 2/3 of our range or, given the example: KK 2 out of 3 times), even though we know that it is a loosing play.
MDF is heuristic for players that are playing vs balanced opponents.
So if we open a balanced range and face a 3bet from a balanced range, we can quickly assume how much we need to defend here to stay balanced.
If we play opponents that are heavilly unbalanced (ie ususally plaing too much value mostly) MDF gets pretty useless/dangerous.
So if we face a 4x overbet OTR in smallstakes-poker, MDF suggests us to defend 20% of our range as an extreme example.
Im pretty sure that you will loose tons of money if you call with that frequency in this spot vs anyone at smaller stakes always.

Gino Song 4 years, 2 months ago

Pot Odds based decisions kinda suck. If you have 32s in the BB, you probably have pot odds to call when the whole table comes in but its going to be -ev. So I'd lean towards minimal defense frequencies. But I don't even know if being unexploitable = GTO. Feels like some spots will always leave you exploitable if you try to max EV. It's all a grey area and very conflicting. Like calling K7s on button vs BB 3bet at low stakes. Yea you are going to call that hand to meet the minimal defense frequency but I don't even think its even +ev. When stuff like that happens I prioritize ev over frequencies.

HawksWin 4 years, 2 months ago

I would simplify these concepts to two things (at least the sample I played this way when I was concerned with my redline & WWSF% worked out quite well):

1) Use MDF when deciding to be aggressive. In other words, ask yourself the question, if I, say, bet pot here, will he fold the appropriate amount of the time? Of course there are exceptions (nutted and allowing them to catch up, etc). Use this basic idea and see what you can get away with. Experiment with it.

2) Use your pot odds when deciding calls. Look at your FD's/SD's/Combo Draws and look at your direct odds and then try to figure out if you have implied odds. I see guys paying pot+ on draws that catch <25% of the time. This is massively unprofitable for them if we learn to identify when to get away on the next street when the bad card(s) hit and extract big bets from them 4 times out of 5 (again, very rough). Study how you are playing your draws passively. If you are making glaring mistakes you will see it is mostly paying a bad price/overestimating implied odds. Think about the times you paid a 2/3 pot bet with an 8 out straight draw when they are in a spot that is bluffed a ton. What good is paying a horrible price drawing to an 8 out draw when they are betting in an over bluffed spot?

HawksWin 4 years, 2 months ago

whiteshark I am assuming that you are the Whiteshark that Steve P. review, is that right? Hope so, looking forward to watching it.

whiteshark 4 years, 2 months ago

Correct! It just got uploaded, so I also haven't watched it yet. I hope the video can provide value to everyone here playing on similar stakes than I do currently and maybe even to some of you that play higher :-)

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