called 3bet, bluffd TP OTT?
Posted by Nick Howard
Posted by
Nick Howard
posted in
Mid Stakes
called 3bet, bluffd TP OTT?
SB: $403.86
BB: $223.25
UTG: $200
HJ: $208.46
CO: $208.90
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO raises to $5, Hero calls $5, SB folds, BB raises to $20, CO folds, Hero calls $15
I think it's probably the single best turn for my range. Right or wrong I currently have AJo in my range here from pre. My other worst hands calling the flop are KdQx, KQcc, 99-TT.
Then my next worst hand is ATs .. so i feel like its pretty close to needing to be a turn bluff. in practice i feel like OOP's range breaks either OTT or OTR at a v high fqcy.
something i've been thinking about .. not sure if this is a practical application of bayesian -
if we assume his range is breaking BY the river, then when our turn bet is called, is it slightly more likely that we'd have more river fold equity than we initially thought we would (if we assumed villain split his fold-too-much strat up more equally from turn to river)?
The idea being that in this trial, we're seeing him call turn (not fold), and that would raise the likelihood that he's he's taking a strategy that calls turn too wide to fold rivers too much (in a spot where we're already making the assumption on the turn that he folds too much BY the river).
If villain's x-c once strat is extreme enuff it would suggest that we actually like seeing the turn call when we're bluffing
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NH, interesting ideas. You're getting acquainted with the mysterious value-bluff :). This is a poker secret not easily revealed, I'm not happy to see it around :(.
So what you're saying is, it's higher EV to turn this hand which is potentially ahead into a bluff, than it is to check back the turn and show it down?
Oh and can you just clarify what a range breaking is?
i think it's just a spot where our range is so strong that our EV is highest to turn some weak TP into a bluff (otherwise villain correctly c/f's too much)
when i said the range would break i just mean that i think the tendency in the player pool is to either c/f the turn too much, or to c/f the river too much if they don't c/f the turn too much. whatever street he c/f's too much is where i'm saying the range breaks
Nice, I like it!
AJ-9combos, flushes-KdQd,QdTd,KdTd,Td9d,9d8d-5combos.
So lets look at our bluffs: KcQc and KdQx are very obvious bet+shoves, thats 4combos.
If you are turning 99,TT into a bluff, thats 12combos, so we arrive at 16c bluffs.
If you are betting all of those and also shoving 100% rivers you are already massively overbluffing, so i rly dont see why you would want to turn AT into a bluff here.
Only reason would be, that you think villain is going to massively overfold T or R folding AQ/AK always, which i doubt is the case at 200nl.
good post matus. looks like the range doesn't need it after all
I think you are better off checking here trying to represent a hand like 99/TT. I'm not too worried about villain having any diamonds based on his turn check and don't think he's gonna have much to be able to call you too frequently.
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