called 3bet, bluffd TP OTT?
Posted by Nick Howard
Posted by Nick Howard posted in Mid Stakes
called 3bet, bluffd TP OTT?
SB: $403.86
BB: $223.25
UTG: $200
HJ: $208.46
CO: $208.90
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO raises to $5, Hero calls $5, SB folds, BB raises to $20, CO folds, Hero calls $15
I think it's probably the single best turn for my range. Right or wrong I currently have AJo in my range here from pre. My other worst hands calling the flop are KdQx, KQcc, 99-TT.
Then my next worst hand is ATs .. so i feel like its pretty close to needing to be a turn bluff. in practice i feel like OOP's range breaks either OTT or OTR at a v high fqcy.
something i've been thinking about .. not sure if this is a practical application of bayesian -
if we assume his range is breaking BY the river, then when our turn bet is called, is it slightly more likely that we'd have more river fold equity than we initially thought we would (if we assumed villain split his fold-too-much strat up more equally from turn to river)?
The idea being that in this trial, we're seeing him call turn (not fold), and that would raise the likelihood that he's he's taking a strategy that calls turn too wide to fold rivers too much (in a spot where we're already making the assumption on the turn that he folds too much BY the river).
If villain's x-c once strat is extreme enuff it would suggest that we actually like seeing the turn call when we're bluffing
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