call or not to call?

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

call or not to call?

CO: 26.64
BN: 30
SB: 21.97
BB: 42.18 (Hero)
UTG: 27.08
HJ: 13.62
26/25/2.0 150 hands
3b 11.9 (59)
btn open 94 (16)
cbet 55 (11)
fold cbet to raise 0 (3)
wwsf 45 (20)
Preflop (0.35) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt 8 T
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO folds, BN raises to 0.50, SB folds, Hero calls 0.25
Flop (1.10) 6 7 2 (2 Players)
Hero checks, BN bets 0.75, Hero raises to 2.75, BN calls 2
Turn (6.60) 6 7 2 5 (2 Players)
Hero bets 5.25, BN raises to 26.75, and is all in

6 Comments

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Chael Sonnen 11 years, 5 months ago

21.5/60 = 35% equity needed
Versus a range of 99, JJ-AA, 98, AK 75, 65, T9, you have 38,5% equity, thus making it a profitable call.

I tried adding club draws and heart draws. How do you do that in Odds Oracle? Also, is it possible to post the graph? It might not be profitable once you add those. Either way, it's close


Juan Copani 11 years, 5 months ago

I don´t agree with the range that you constructed Chael.

Against a happy checkraiser i won´t fold all of my 34/84. Probably never 55.

6h7h2c5c 31.00% { Tc8c }MP3 69.00% { 55+, 22, 98s, 84s, 75s+, 43s, 98o, 75o+ }

And im not even adding all the betters flushdraws that he could be jaming. So this is probably a fold. Kc8c would be probably close, id never fold Ac8c. But this one has to be a fold.


SPrince 11 years, 5 months ago

How can he ever have a better flush draw here.

I think his range looks like : Ah3h, Ah4h, Ah8h, Ah9h, Xh8h, 7c4c, 8h4h, 98s, 98o, 43s, 65s, 75s, 65o, 75o, 6h2h, 5h2h with the occasional set and two pair combos: 22, 66, 77, 76s, 76o, 72s, 62s, that he decided to play weird like this.

Should be an easy fold.


Marrek 11 years, 5 months ago

what's his fold vs 3bet %?  seems like a good 3bet bluff spot.  

Turn jams are nutted hands.  His fold cbet vs raise is 0 for 3!! Seems like he's full of S***, but his  AF of 2.0 is more likely to be true and meaningful here; and means he doesn't have draws in his range and is much more weighted to having str8s and 55.

Villain jamming 2 pair here would be bad since hero reps 67+.  villain might be overvaluing 75, but an AF of 2.0 makes it seem less likely.


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