Call or fold river

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Posted by posted in Mid Stakes

Call or fold river

BN: dima_ds90: $95.13
SB: Hero: $200
BB: Mongerrrr: $315.75
UTG: lovbabylov: $219.16
HJ: Fiude: $343.30
CO: amurophil: $224.74
Preflop ($3.00) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt K Q
lovbabylov folds, Fiude folds, amurophil raises to $5, dima_ds90 folds, Hero raises to $18, Mongerrrr folds, amurophil calls $13
I could flat, but I play pretty much a 3-bet or fold strategy from the SB.

Villian is a moderately aggressive reg.
Flop ($39.00) 5 4 J (2 Players)
Hero bets $20, amurophil calls $20
Standard c-bet
Turn ($79.00) 5 4 J Q (2 Players)
Hero checks, amurophil checks
His calling range probably looks like: Ahigh, Jx, 77-JJ. I think he'll fold almost every time if I bet, so I decide to check, and bet the river to rep a hand like AK.

Once he checks, I expect him to have a hand with showdown value.
River ($79.00) 5 4 J Q A (2 Players)
Hero checks, amurophil bets $47
But now a terrible card hits. If he had a hand like TT, he'd check behind.
He has to have AJ here almost every time. Nothing else makes sense.

But my hand is slightly disguised, and I'm decently high up in my range."

Thoughts?

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