c-c-d line by aggro fish on a paired river

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c-c-d line by aggro fish on a paired river

Blinds: $0.25/$0.50 (7 Players) CO: $30.73
BN: $63.82
SB: $62.51
BB: $35.71
UTG: $56.22
UTG+1: $78.25 (Hero)
MP: $102.31
BB: 42/31 over 86 hands, being on an aggro side so far
FCB 100 4/4 (small sample, but maybe isnt the guy who calls every single flop naked - might be helpful when assigning him number of 7x)
3b 0
Preflop ($0.75) Hero is UTG+1 with 3 J
4 folds, BN raises to $1.25, SB folds, BB calls $0.75
Hero isnt involved in this hand, but since the goal of my ssn is to learn as much as I can, I am also observing games in which I am not involved and this one becomes really interesting, esp. after BTN folded, he mucked AKs, so I started to wonder WTF?!
Flop ($2.75) K 7 A
BB checks, BN bets $1.50, BB calls $1.50
Turn ($5.75) K 7 A 8
BB checks, BN bets $3.64, BB calls $3.64
The main question remains, is an aggro fish able to find a fold with 7x? I would say that most likely yeah, what do you think? Is he calling more QJ.QT in general than 7x?
River ($13.03) K 7 A 8 7
BB bets $29.32 and is all in, BN folds

I think its much easier to overbluff.. there are ton of FDs.. since I expect him to be pretty loose preflop and call almost any suited hand. With that assumption, hes got 51 possible unpaired hands (incl JT since its a SD OTT). Compared with possible number of 7x - 48 +22 (possible slowplays). Lets assume that half of the slowplays would take a different line, its 51/59 possible bluff:value ratio.
We should also take into consideration the fact that the number of his bluffs is pretty accurate, but the number of value might be significantly lower if he starts folding some 7x OTF or OTT. That said, vs a guy who might be overbluffing by nature and there are prob even more bluffy combos OTR than the value ones in his range, I dont think I am ready to fold any Ace...

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