BVB turning flush into bluff

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BVB turning flush into bluff

Blinds: $0.10/$0.25 (4 Players) BN: $25.25
SB: $54.06
BB: $25.00 (Hero)
CO: $17.61
Not many preflop reads on opponent but postflop he has been barreling a lot and continuing with a frequency on turns and rivers
Preflop ($0.35) Hero is BB with 9 Q
2 folds, SB raises to $0.60, Hero calls $0.35
Flop ($1.20) Q 5 4
SB bets $0.80, Hero calls $0.80
Turn ($2.80) Q 5 4 3
SB bets $1.87, Hero calls $1.87
Pre flop and turn I think are standard I think especially against someone betting quite wide on the turn when we have good equity against all but the top hands in his range.
River ($6.54) Q 5 4 3 Q
SB bets $5.00, Hero folds
First thing I noted on river was his sizing which I think polarises him more than if he had better smaller and means we can potentially rule out lower flushes than ours and potentially even the J high flushes. Dont think we can call here but wondered if anyone thought it was a good spot to bluff. We have a Q which blocks some of his full houses and I am not sure he would bet 55/44/33 on the turn though I cant eliminate all combos. Facing a shove in this spot based on the ranges I assigned he has to be folding A high flushes at least some of the time to make this a profitable spot. Is this too optimistic to give someone credit for in game?
Final Pot SB wins $6.25
Rake is $0.29

3 Comments

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Jummyjamz 9 years, 5 months ago

In general I think it's too optimistic to expect folks to fold a decent flush. You also can't really rep a FH as hard when you don't raise flop. And I don't think having the Q really blocks a significant # of his house combos.

Limp Limpson 9 years, 5 months ago

river jam looks like an interesting idea, till you actually start doing them and realise that

a)his river betting range is just way too strong. And I dont mean "his hand is nutted", I mean "He thinks that his hand is nutted", which is a very important distinction when you're planning to bluff him. We both know that As is a really bad bluffcatcher versus your jam, but thats simply irrelevant if we want to bluff.

2)You will get called by As a lot

3)You will see boats a lot.

Basically you're planning to jam into uncapped ultrastrong range with literally zero bluffs, where even the middle of that range can be perceived as nuts by half the player pool and you might get him to fold. Might not. You know that you're getting called by boats. The fact that we dont block anything is basically irrelevant.

Not a good plan imo, just fold

stanier101 9 years, 4 months ago

A shove here would probably work against a competent opponent some of the time. Probably run a CREV sim to see how often, giving him calling range of all boats and A/K flushes. However generally what limp limpson said is correct. You'd have to have history or a soul read for this to really generate expected value

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