Question is can he show worse for value? Prob not with this river size.

who we are playing against? regular? or weak player?

Any thoughts please? :-)

Hello,

PF, I would fold T4s, even to a min raise. I would defend from T6s or T7s, whether the villain is weak or not.

As played flop, the pot odds are enough to just call and try to hit your FD, a T or a 4. The X / R option would be fine if the villain’s sizing was much higher. And the problem with a X / R is, when you hit your flush, it will be all the harder to get called by the villain as you are showing strengh.

The villain’s sizing on the turn is a typical X / R spot with your hand, as the pot odds are not enough any more and you have less outs (the Th is definitely not a clean one). The villain is betting higher to protect a straight (65s, maybe 65o), a set (99, 44, 33) in case of a mix of call X / R / 3-bet X / R on the flop (let us say 50% call X / R, 50% 3-bet X / R), two-pairs (97s, maybe 97o, with a mix of 50% call X / R, 50% 3-bet X / R on the flop in case of 43s, maybe 43o), an overpair played with a mix of call X / R / 3-bet X / R on the flop (let us say 75% 3-bet X / R, 25% call X / R) and TP. The villain may also bet with FDs, with more turned FDs (i.e. BDF) than flopped FDs, the turned ones being fewer than flopped ones: the BDF remaining are those with a straight (6h5h), TP (9h8h, 9h6h, maybe 9h5h) and overcards; in other words, the villain has more FDs with clubs than with hearts, but can check back more often FDs with clubs to get the free card (let us say 50% X, 50% bet with FDs with clubs, 100% bet with FDs with hearts).

As played river, the villain has at least 9 combos for a full house and, if you are blocking 44, 97 is part of the range; in addition, in case the villain is able to have bet on the turn with flopped FDs, the villain can overbet shove in hope to make the move suspicious and get an easier call by an overpair, trips and some TPs and missed FDs being worked by tilt and/or frustration, as a classical sizing will make the villain’s flush more visible; concerning an overpair and any 9 other than 99 and 97, I think the villain checks them back. The main problem is that there are only 3 flush combos you beat: 8h6h, 8h5h and 6h5h, and, of course, you beat the remaining 65s and 65o for the straight. To make a correct call, you need to win 37% of the time; but, your hand has only 31.5% equity versus { 99, 44, 33, AhJh+, Ah8h, Ah6h-Ah5h, Ah2h, KhJh+, Kh8h, Kh6h-Kh5h, Kh2h, QhJh, Qh8h, Qh6h-Qh5h, Qh2h, Jh8h, Jh6h-Jh5h, Jh2h, 97s, 97o, 8h6h-8h5h, 65s, 65o } and only 9.5% if the villain does not shove with a straight. So, the best decision is to X / F, even though it is a sick fold.

Some Flopzilla:

Also our range is quite capped by checking the turn, we really dont have that many full houses and nut flushes too.

As the villain is unknown, it is too early to reason based on range versus range.

By the way, you are not playing BVB, but BB versus Btn. ;-)

Couple of things..first of all am confident that vs unknowns our optimal strategy should be to play game theory oriented unexploitative poker. The reason for that is the same readon we say we hit set with a pair on the flop 1/8 times..meaning that in reality we could have better odds if lets say we have 33s and the hands that were folded didnt include 33s or wr could have less than 1/8 if some of the folds had 3 in their hand..thing is we dont know what was the case so we eliminate the folding cards and the removal effect from our decision making process. Similar to the above scenario villain could be a gto wizard or a total fish . But we need to play unexploitative poker which makes money on both occasions..even vs fish..
I wouldnt fold any flush on the river as played since we dont have many full houses , if any at all, in our range..villain could in fact show up with quite some bluffs..you d be suprised of how many random bluffs he could show up..

I'd call.

Couple of thoughts.

1) You have the perfect bluff catcher. You're blocking some of his main value combos (44 and clubs)
2) You're capped and your hand looks like an A9/TT type hand that went for thin value on the flop and is slowing down on turn or maybe 76/75s etc. You're probably always barreling turn with a set (or at least you should be).
3) You are very rarely XC'ing a bare FD (without pair) on the turn vs almost a PSB OOP. That means you have very few flushes in your range (going back to the previous point that you're capped in terms of flushes as well; not just boats).

So your strongest hands that you get to the river with here are 4cXc. Some of those you also XC flop with and so you don't even have all of those combos. So if you're folding T4cc, you're folding almost your entire range.

He could also show up with a smaller flush some non-0% of the time for value as your range is massively capped and he minraised BTN so he'll have many suited raggedy hands in his range that may very well play the flop/turn the same way.