Breaking Even - Stat check-up
Posted by Sicarius
Posted by
Sicarius
posted in
Mid Stakes
Breaking Even - Stat check-up
After many years of succesfull grinding it has been going very badly this year. I have been playing mostly 100/200nl zoom. Maybe someone has some pointers about stuff I could be doing wrong.
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If I had this information only and its all I had to work with, I would conclude based on this you are doing something bad on the btn.
at first glance i think you're getting hurt by
-folding too much vs 3bet
-folding too much vs steal from the blinds
-4betting too much? (if you can post your "4bet range" stats by position i can get a better idea)
here are some other stats to post that i think are helpful in major leakfinding ..
-bb fold to button steal
-c/f flop as pfr
-flop fold vs c-bet (single raised an 3bet pots)
-turn fold vs c-bet (single raised and 3bet pots)
-call 3bet % by position
-vs 4-bet fold %
Why is 56% too much folding to 3bets ?
here are some other stats to post that i think are helpful in major leakfinding ..
-bb fold to button steal
-c/f flop as pfr
-flop fold vs c-bet (single raised an 3bet pots)
-turn fold vs c-bet (single raised and 3bet pots)
-call 3bet % by position
-vs 4-bet fold %
Could you give some kind of range you think is acceptable for each of those? Just some kind of
"If your fold to c-bet is higher than X or lower than Y then you should probably have a very good reason" type thing.
i'm doing well at 200z with these:
51% - bb fold to button steal
45% -c/f flop as pfr
47% - flop fold vs c-bet (single raised pot)
36% -turn fold vs c-bet (single raised)
45%-48%-48%-48% -fold to 3bet % by position (EP-BTN)
41%- vs 4-bet fold
I got:
61% fold bb vs BTN steal
c/f flop as pfr -> I cant find this stat in PT4
47% fold vs cbet BOTH in 2bet and 3bet pots
40% fold to Turn cbet BOTH in 2bet and 3bet pots
Call 3bet% 54-58% depending on position see Stats in OP
48% fold vs 4bet after 3betting
Edit:
I also checked fold to cbet in HU pots only and its ~44% for both 2bet and 3bet pots
Also c/r flop is 10.4% and 8.7% c/r total
Raise Fcbet is 12.4%
This is way to nitty, right?
I might be wrong but I think the x/f as PFR in PT4 is fold to flop float bet
search for "Check fold Flop % as PFR" under All (not sure what category i pulled it from)
it's definitely not bad, but i think you can defend wider at these limits and show a profit
also you're not cbetting turns often enough imo. this may be a function of how you construct your flop cbetting ranges, can't tell for sure just by looking at stats.
So you're basically folding the flop a bit more than 1-A and folding the turn a bit less, do you think that's exploiting the c-bet ranges of the player pool?
Also, you're check-folding the flop 45% and have a 23% oop C-Bet (or was the C-Bet thing from a different a sample?) That would mean that 32% of the time you're checking/continuing on the flop as the pfr. With a 23% OOP C-Bet, you're checking 77% of the time. You're therefore defending the following amount of your checks:
32/77 = .4155
This seems far less than alpha. Do you have any thoughts on why this would be? Also, when you say you're doing well could you give some kind of 95% confidence interval win-rate from the sample that you used as reference for those stats?
the stat is skewed considerably b/c it's including multiway pots
i'm pretty sure this stat means taht i'm defending 55% of my flop checks
i'm pretty sure this stat means taht i'm defending 55% of my flop checks
Yeah, you're probably right but I'd like to know how they calculate it. If it's:
Did Check = True
Did Fold = True
Then yeah , you'd be defending 55%. I don't know if they do it starting with:
Could Check = True
I think they used to kind of mess up the way some stats were calculated, but they've probably gotten better.
What do your non-showdown winnings look like? I know you told me they were negative but do you know by how much?
This really shows how tough the games are when someone with what looks to be solid stats breaks even over 300k hands.
What do you feel yourself. Have you been running bad? What's your ev line look like?
Edit: How can he be 4 betting too much with a 4bet% of 8.8!? Too low imo
i didn't see that 4bet stat. yea that's too nitty, isn't like anything <12% on the nitty side?
Whats a good winrate for these games? If its something like 2bb/100, then this can easily be variance as well. Kinda brutal to think about.
I think the problem is probably in your postflop play. 57% w%sd seems very high to me, you're probably not calling enough somewhere (or maybe you're bluffing too much). I tend to find my w$wsf+w$sd sums to around 100, for instance these days I'm usually around 48% w$wsf and 52% w$sd, or thereabouts. I tend to think you're giving up with marginal hands too often and trying to showdown, for instance you're cbetting only 59% and cb turn only 47%, which is a fairly nitty style. My guess is you need to focus harder on hand/board texture reading postflop, as your preflop stats are solid.
1 His WWSF is 47.5% and W@SD at 57% which sums up to 104.5 which is greater than your ballpark of 100. I would imagine higher SUM is better? Why do you think its worse than 100?
2 What would you consider good flop and turn cbet ranges since you think his are very low?
if they add up to more than 100% then your leaving money on the tables geek
Random question, maybe this is a pokertracker vs HEM thing but how can EP 3-bet be 2.6? In HEM this simply states n/a since you are first to act so can't 3-bet.
He has probably played some FR - or maybe limp/3b would cause this? IDK as I haven't used that play in a very long time
I think that you can not beat zoom games with loosing so many bb/100 at NSD.You can not make this up with showdown winnings. So maybe you fold to much on flops and turns, you don't steal enough, you don't defend blinds enough, you don t c/r enough, your 4bet should be around 12-15% I guess etc...and you definitely don't value bet thinly enough. It is rare to see a winning player even at 200nl that is giving up so many bb/100 with non showdown, at 400nl you will probably not even find one. Check you database and you will see that most winning regulars at your stakes loose much less with NSD.
I think the problem is probably in your postflop play.
+1. the stats you posted look fine. As long as you don't have gaping preflop leaks, the vast majority of your winrate is derived from how well you play the turn and the river.
I'm leaving mexico at the end of may and i'll post a write up about the top things i think are important in beating the 200zoom games
i think you should learn to play heads up. Improve your technique and go from there. Your style dosnt beat the game - Insanity is trying the same thing over and over expecting different results.
congrats on your vvps though :P
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