Bovada 400nl HU: Close river decision and estimating an unknown villain's range
Posted by Cory Mikesell
Posted by Cory Mikesell posted in Mid Stakes
Bovada 400nl HU: Close river decision and estimating an unknown villain's range
I am somewhat new to HUNL as I play almost exclusively 6-max, but am trying to increase my comfort level when starting new tables. Please feel free to comment on or criticize my decisions at any point in the hand. My main area of interest in this hand is my construction of villain's river range and determining what the average reg will get to/call on this river.
Villain is an unknown reg who we have played 10 hands with so far. The only reads I have at this point are that villain is min opening and has not folded a button yet. He has also taken a somewhat weird line in a 3B pot, but that doesn't seem super relevant to this hand.
Hero is in BB 100bb deep and calls a min open with Kh 3s
Flop: Kc 9s 3c I don't always play a c/r strategy on these flop textures, but I felt that it would be effective against this villain
Villain bets 3bb into 4bb, Hero c/r to 10bb, Villain calls (pot: 24bb)
Turn 7d
Hero bets 23bb and villain calls (pot: 70bb, 65bb in Hero's stack)
River Ac
Hero?
I've been toying around with various river ranges for villain and have come up with everything from a slightly +EV shove to a c/f depending on my assumptions.
Primary Questions: How many Kx do you think the average reg calls with on this river? How likely is a villain to fast play the flop with AA/AK hoping to stack the NFD? How strong would you perceive my range to be on this runout?
I know most of these questions are unanswerable in a vacuum, but I just want to hear how strong players work through these problems.
I chose to shove thinking that the Ac blocks a lot of the FDs with which he would have gotten to the river (QJcc, JTcc, QTcc might fast play flop or turn with the gutter and a paucity of SDV) and that some of his nut hands may have fast played earlier.
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