Bovada 3/6 Turning second pair into bluff OTR in 3 bet pot

Posted by

Posted by posted in Mid Stakes

Bovada 3/6 Turning second pair into bluff OTR in 3 bet pot

Bovada 3/6

400 eff.

Hero raises CO to 18 with JsTs, BTN 3 bets to 60, hero calls.

Flop (127) 7sQhTc. Hero checks, BTN bets 78, Hero calls.

Turn (282) 6s. Hero checks, V checks.

River (282) 8h. Hero bets 210.

What do you guys think of turning this hand into a bluff OTR? Seems hard for us to have a much worse hand. KJs comes to mind but that is only 4 combos so think we should have more bluffs than that and this seems like a good hand to use.

17 Comments

Loading 17 Comments...

Stayinschool 8 years, 8 months ago

What if he decideds to C bet a QJ QK type hand. I think it's reasonable to say some people would check back those hands. Not everyone plays perfect and this is bovada

sauloCosta10 8 years, 8 months ago

Ok so I entered this hand on flopzilla to see how your range should look like by the river. I estimated you defend preflop with 66+, AQo, some frequency of KQo (I used 50%), all suited broadways, J9s-A9s, T9s, 89s, and some frequency of A8s-A2s (used 50% as well). By the river you have 33 combos of AQ+ I think are worth value betting. I think villains range is fairly week so I would chose a bet sizing that guarantees calls from weirdly played Qx, some JJx and some other stuff. So lets say you bet half pot. You have 33 combos of value, and to be balanced you need 11 combos of bluffs (33/3 = 11). I estimated that you defend flop with AJs with backdoor flushdraw which I think is reasonable. So 3 combos of AJs + 4 combos of KJs = 7 combos. You need 4 more combos and there aren't really any other bluffs you can have so you are right, JTs would be the next pick. Using the 3 combos of it would still leave you with 10 combos of bluffs, needing 1 more. But almost perfectly balanced! Nice HH

Stayinschool 8 years, 8 months ago

Yea, our assumptions are slightly different as I might value bet a little tigher but also bet bigger due to how I think the player pool plays on bovada but think we get to a similar conclusion. I also forgot about AJs which is a good point.

sauloCosta10 8 years, 8 months ago

If you dont value bet top pairs then it makes sense to go bigger, you are going to have 21 combos of 2p+ and close to the same amount of bluffs. Either way you will end up bluffing with JTs, which wasnt clear to me at first. Nice hand

Dddogkillah 8 years, 8 months ago

400 eff.

No reads but this could potentially be a sign of a weaker player that wont fold to your bluffs,
I dont really like the bluff, allot of the hands we are trying to get villain to fold is Tx, and the other majority of his folding range is A high.
When villain checks back his range becomes very capped and heavily weighted to medium pairs and A high/air.
I wouldent really expected a SSer or a fish to be 3-betting a polar range here, I would put him on a linear range on the stronger side. Which connects very nicely with this flop. When he checks back turn I would start to weighting hands TP+ at different frequencies.
But a majority of the hands he folds on the river are hands that we are ahead of at SD; AK, AJ, KJs...
I also feel betting all your Qx on a 4-str might not be the best idea, and seems very thin to me.
My value region on river would be some AQ+ which is around 18 combos. Given he has a broken stack I would not be that worried about my value to bluff ratio OTR.

paired boards OTR and 4 card straights are 2 types that you can usually under-bluff and play exploitatively on.

Very good point here as well, combined with the 400 eff stack maybe we should just be betting for value, especially @ Bovada.

Be the first to add a comment

Runitonce.com uses cookies to give you the best experience. Learn more about our Cookie Policy