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Bottom set tricky spot on river NL25z

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

Bottom set tricky spot on river NL25z

Blinds: $0.10/$0.25 (6 Players) BN: $35.94
SB: $25.00
BB: $29.55 (Hero)
UTG: $25.00
MP: $18.49
CO: $12.60
Villain is 30/18 over 44 hands.
Preflop ($0.35) Hero is BB with 2 2
3 folds, BN raises to $0.67, SB folds, Hero calls $0.42
Flop ($1.44) K 2 7
Hero checks, BN bets $0.90, Hero raises to $2.75, BN calls $1.85
Decided to go for the check raise on the flop rather than the check call, I think I mix it up a bit to be honest.
Turn ($6.94) K 2 7 A
Hero bets $5.00, BN calls $5.00
Bet again on the turn, I think villain checks behind hands that we beat too often so want to bet to get value from those. Gonna be a tricky spot vs a raise but I think his bluff range is going to be very narrow.
River ($16.94) K 2 7 A 5
Hero checks, BN bets $9.20, Hero folds
Final Pot BN wins $16.18
Rake is $0.76

I played this hand about a week ago from when I'm posting this so not exactly sure of my thought process on the river. I think we can go for the bet/fold option with the relatively safe assumption that he will only shove with hands that beat us, going around the same size that villain does on the river.

When I check and villain bets, I think that I was thinking at the time that villain is going to check behind pretty much all worse hands, even a hand like AK probably will check behind as it's hard to see a hand worse than AK that plays this way and calls the river.

Now looking back on it I see it a little differently. When I check the river I think (and I think that villain thinks) that I never have a flush here. Is this enough ti make villain bet hands like A7/AK/K7 for value on the river? I'm not sure, mainly because if I don't have a flush here, what am I check raising the flop with? It's gonna be sets, possibly K7 and hands like gutshot + backdoor flush draw.

Is this river fold too tight? Would a bet/fold line be better? Do you think villain (or you in villain's spot) bets a two pair hand on the river?

Thanks!

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