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Bottom set against problematic hand range 10NL

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

Bottom set against problematic hand range 10NL

UTG: $12.20
HJ: $9.75
CO: $10.24
BN: $12.06
SB: $5.90
BB: $36.57 (Hero)
CO: 13/10 (39 hands)
Preflop ($0.15) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt 4 4
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO raises to $0.30, BN folds, SB folds, Hero calls $0.20
Flop ($0.65) 4 K Q (2 Players)
Hero checks, CO bets $0.48, Hero raises to $1.66, CO raises to $5.42, Hero raises to $34.61, CO calls $4.04
CO is a nit player in a smalll sample, but I had a set on a semi-coordinated board. When I raise this flop, my hand range weight towards 44 ; KQ ; draws/pure bluffs.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

26,730 games 0.000 secs 5,346,000 games/sec

Board: 4h Qh Ks
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 62.985% 62.99% 00.00% 16836 0.00 { 4c4d }
Hand 1: 37.015% 37.01% 00.00% 9894 0.00 { QQ+, AhJh, AhTh, KQs, JTs, KQo }

I'm interested about that range I stoved in. If I gave him just QQ-KK and KQ combinations, it's 50-50. After I gave him strong combodraws and AA, it turned into my side, it tells me I'm on an easy shove.

Thank You!
Turn ($46.86) 9 (2 Players)
River ($46.86) T (2 Players)

6 Comments

Loading 6 Comments...

Chael Sonnen 11 years, 6 months ago

There is no other way to play this hand. You flopped the best hand you can ever have in this spot, so you should never fold. Fist pump call at 100BB.
Even a tight player can have AK/KQ/JThh/KhXh/AA here. If he has a bigger set, that just sucks.

whysoeasy 11 years, 6 months ago

When you have 50% vs the top of his range, don't worry too much about his whole range for go broke and think more like every other combo he will show up with is bonus.

Tom Whelan 11 years, 6 months ago

You can't give him every AA and JT imo, he would flat with a lot of those rather than 3bet. Maybe just JhTh and one or two AA combos but add Th9h as well as some Khxh hands

Sean Fri 11 years, 6 months ago

At 10nl, I would definitely add a few combos of AK. Some nits are then kind to wait around for big hands and when they finally get a piece of a flop, they're never letting TPTK go. Also, I've seen even tight guys just go ahead and play all of their nfd's this way, though those guys are usually a little looser pre. It sort of depends on what kind of nit he is, and there are a lot of types of nit at 10nl. 

SPrince 11 years, 6 months ago

Tom is right about spliting his ranges to an extent.I would not give a nit AA or AK though for stacking off here, unless he perceives you as a total maniac.I gave him nothing but sets, two pair, and combos:

QQ-KK,KQs,KQo,AhKh,AhJh,AhTh,JhTh,KhTh,KhJh,Th9h=44.17%

44=55.83%

Still an easy shove.


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