Bottom boat on flushed river. 100nl
Posted by WM2K
Posted by
WM2K
posted in
Low Stakes
Bottom boat on flushed river. 100nl
Villain is a lag reg that I havent seen around before today. Running 28/24 3 betting ~13% sb vs btn and folds to c bet 38% so far.
I bet small OTR to get a crying call out of 7 but once he raises is there enough combos of worse (Ah, some idk 8x bluff or something) to make this call? We need 23%.
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snap call.. Think he could do it with a flush to be honest. Guess he's 3betting 88 and 77 and maybe 87s often with those stats.
Nah, I wouldn´t call it a "snap-call". I´d still call, but not snap.
He´s likely not bluffing but raising for value. And there aren´t too many hands - especially flushes in his hand that wouldn´t 3bet, but take this line. Overall I actually think boats (88, 77 and 87s) are the most likely hands in his range, yet I don´t think we can fold for the odds we´re getting.
i think 77 raises flop since the board is draw heavy, and if not on the flop then probably the turn to define his hand more.
You are right. It's not a snap. Bad of me to say that. Just think 88,77 and 87s are unlikely as well since he would have taken anoer line with them as well. But you are correct in that he probably would have taken another line with Axs as well. I change my answer to just "call after thinking about it".
Really? I would put Axh his value range as well. I can see hands like AhQ AhJ AhT getting to the river as well, or do you feel like most people 3bet those for value?
if it was an offsuit 8 then i think the turn would really define his range because he would most likely be raising with 2 pair on turn. But since its the 8 that completes the flush, i can see him just flatting with 87. 87 and pocket 8s are the only hands im worried about so that leaves the question if this is a call or a fold..
im not good enough to fold here and be comfortable living life so its def a call for me. still not a super happy spot tho.
oh wait a minute...
i didnt see your river sizing. It's definitely a ship.
Vanity, his 3betting range depends if he's polarized or more linear. My guess is linear looking at his stats and then a lot of the ace hands will be in his 3bet range. Hard to know without more info though.
I'd call. I don't like the small bet so much, especially "to get a crying call out of 7". What 7's do you see in his range?
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