Bluffing w over Pair in a 3bet Pot? (NL 100)
Posted by jonzocker
Posted by jonzocker posted in Low Stakes
Bluffing w over Pair in a 3bet Pot? (NL 100)
CO: 115.35
BN: 200.41
SB: 26.75
BB: 48.95
UTG: 88.30
Hero raises to 3, CO raises to 9, BN folds, SB folds, UTG folds, Hero calls 6
What is your plan for the river with your range?
Lets say we have JJ-QQ and AQs/AK
I assume that Villain is checking KK/QQ for shure and his bluffs (KQ etc) + Nuts (AA/AK and Ax) some of the time.
Lets say he is checking them around 3/4 of the time. Given that he is not always 3betting AK and QQ lets say 50% of the time he has this range at the river:
Nuts:
AA (4,5 combos)
AK (6 combos)
Ax ( ? )
Bluffcatcher:
KK (6combos)
QQ (0,5 combos)
Bluffs:
KQo (9 combos)
Putting those numbers in crEV a 1/2 Ps bet has the same EV w QQ, when Villain is folding KK and never betting KQo, compared w check/folding them. This is just playing my hand QQ and not my whole range!
Given that it is pretty close, I like a bet with JJ and a check/fold w QQ. JJ is not blocking KQ and QQ wich gives us a lot more FE and Villain will bluff us more often if we check w KQ.
What do you think, how do you play your Ax hands?
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