Bluffing river? NL25z

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Bluffing river? NL25z

Blinds: $0.10/$0.25 (6 Players) BN: $27.11 (Hero)
SB: $28.62
BB: $30.02
UTG: $45.75
MP: $25.00
CO: $25.15
Preflop ($0.35) Hero is BN with 6 A
2 folds, CO raises to $0.62, Hero raises to $2.00, 2 folds, CO calls $1.38
Flop ($4.35) 9 4 7
CO checks, Hero bets $2.12, CO calls $2.12
Turn ($8.59) 9 4 7 T
CO checks, Hero bets $5.50, CO calls $5.50
River ($19.59) 9 4 7 T J
CO checks, Hero

Villain is reg 23/17/5 % 3 bet fold to river bet 44, WTSD 31% after 500 hands

3 Comments

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frontdoorbackdoor 6 years, 4 months ago

Think this river favours his range a fair bit and improves a lot of his hands so would probably just give up here. His wtsd is a bit high and you're already making money vs the pool by barreling turn. Doesnt help that we block clubs too. Guessing we want to block 2 pair or 8x when we bluff as they are his most likely calling hands.

HawksWin 6 years, 4 months ago

Probably not great to barrel turn here. He is going have a bunch of calls and check raises here, neither of which you really want to see. I think we can find better bluffing combos where you can comfortably fold or continue with facing heat.

If I decided to barrel turn with NFD at all, I think I would choose a different combo. A8cc and A9cc seem like better choices. You have flush outs, straight outs, pair outs and with A9cc you have trips outs to go along with your flush outs. A8cc is about 8% better than A6cc vs a reasonable "get to turn range". A9cc is actually going to be a equity favorite vs that same range since his turn range will certainly have 88. I think if I barrel, A9cc, A8cc and 98cc are better choices. They have better equity than your combo. The problem with barreling here is you have to fold out so much equity on a board that will be check/raised quite often.

Jbarez 6 years, 4 months ago

I like to checkback turn there - just as HawksWin said - you have nice equity but its also very likely you will get check/raised and forced to fold so safe xback is better for that specific combo.

As played on river I prefer to giveup. Its really hard for 3bettor to have there many straights and villain should realize its unlikely that shove overpair there for value.

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