Bluffing range? 100nl
Posted by WM2K
Posted by
WM2K
posted in
Low Stakes
Bluffing range? 100nl
zemel9 raises to $3, 2 folds, WM2K calls $3, 2 folds Flop ($7.50, 2 players) 
zemel9 bets $4, WM2K calls $4 Turn ($15.50, 2 players)
zemel9 bets $9, WM2K calls $9 River ($33.50, 2 players)
zemel9 bets $19, $19 to WM2K ($84)?So I think this spot is quite interesting on many levels. First should we raise here? I mean obv we got a boat but my intuition says that its a lot thinner then it seems. Villains raising 20-25% from this spot c betting ~ 75% 2 barrels 33% over a small sample. For betting the river I ve given him aq,aa,kk,qq,22,a2$s,tt this range. For this to be a raise here he needs to call AA 50% of the time and we re at 55% vs his calling range. Now AA only beats a bluff so we need to have at least perceived bluffs in our range. So what do we bluff with here? I think that we can possibly bluff raise an exploitable range as well here. I m thinking AKss, AJss, and maybe JJ that you floated 2x? How would you guys play your river? and how do we get enough bluffs in this spot?
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That said, the question is NOT if you should raise, but if you should shove. You should definitely raise, imho (a more interesting question is what happens if you minraise and he shoves, but in this case, I´d actually think you can fold, he´s "never" shoving AA, QT and most likely not even 55 in this spot, not to mention him bluffing).
The question if you should shove or not - obviously entirely depends on the Villain and how he perceives you. Some will snap-fold AA like a hot potatoe (where A2s obviously has almost exactly the same relative hand strength!), some will snap you with AQ because they expect you to being able to turn QJs into a bluff or overplay QTs (if it´s in your preflop-range).
That said, we had to know sth. about the Villain AND sth. about how he perceives you to give more than just a guess how he will react on a shove. But flatting is totally out of question for me. In any way. :)
Fwiw I think I d fold AQ to a minraise. Cause like who bluffs like at 100nl?
Against very good regs you should indeed have a wider river-shoving-range for value AND as bluff (most likely turning the bottom end of your bluff-catching-range into a bluff - like you mentioned).
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