Bluffing on favorable runout SQZ pot
Posted by MatoStar
Posted by
MatoStar
posted in
Low Stakes
Bluffing on favorable runout SQZ pot
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50 (8 Players)
SB: $69.86
BB: $51.84
UTG: $67.71
UTG+1: $32.80
MP: $27.88
MP+1: $20.30
CO: $50.00 (Hero)
BN: $14.89
BB: $51.84
UTG: $67.71
UTG+1: $32.80
MP: $27.88
MP+1: $20.30
CO: $50.00 (Hero)
BN: $14.89
20/14 (181)
3b 6
3b 6
Preflop
($0.75)
Hero is CO with
A
Q
, , , , , , , ,
For that size, I cant really fold.
Flop
($18.00)
6
8
9
,
Now it gets closer. Not sure if this is a range bet.. I think he should be more polarized on this flop.
Turn
($32.00)
6
8
9
T
, ,
having range advantage, I prefer to bet smaller even with my bluffs. Maybe I can exploitatively just check and bluff the river? Or bet smaller here and check the river?
Not really sure, how to exploit the pool in this exact hand.
Not really sure, how to exploit the pool in this exact hand.
River
($46.00)
6
8
9
T
2
,
Do we wanna target AQ,AK witha diamond and overpairs without a diamond? If our aim are AQ,AK 1 diamond, I think we are better off checking the turn and betting the river.
Loading 6 Comments...
I think I would 4bet this at a pretty high frequency. But like you said you have an equity advantage on this board with our range that flats the squeeze so the turn 25% pot bet needs to be bigger I think 50-75% seems more logical because although they are calling with the Ad they would bet this on the turn at decent frequency so I think they are folding alot of their range here, possibly overpairs here without a diamond have to fold. The river seems like we should be betting on the large size 70%+. We have all the sets, straights and some K and Q high flushes. If we check the turn and are checked to on the river I think an overbet is probably best. We're targeting overpairs to fold here so any smaller bet doesnt seem to achieve that. I'm probably dead wrong would be nice to here another opinion.
Thanks for the reply:)
Agree, that turn bet should be bigger to fold out overpairs without a diamond. On the river, we have 2/3 of the pot behind. In game, I shoved, he called with AdAx.
Still didnt get this.
In case he makes a 5bet, I would be getting cheap prize to call, so I am kinda forced to go 4b/c which I dont really like vs the pool - range QQ+,AK (sometimes even KK+). But maybe making it like 2x and fold to 5bet doesnt sound that bad to me... let me know if this is the option you thought.
AdAx is unfortunate, maybe we do check the turn with AcQc and our bluffs are AQ's with the Ad? maybe seems more balanced because on reflection if we are bluffing AQ no diamond here are we bluffing too much?
Obviously it depends on villians tendencies but I imagine that they are squeezing here with a lot of hands that we an equity advantage over, suited connectors, some unsuited broadways, A5/4s. I would push this advantage with a 4b. In this pool I dont think they have much of a 4b call range so its probably a 5b or fold which means we can play the spot perfectly by just folding AQs to 5b
Pre: Is good, calling IP with this much equity is good, deciding to 4bet depends on how aggro you BTN is.
Flop: Is a little weak from V. You could consider raising them right here. There are a lot of hands you can continue to fire a bluff on (assuming V is good enough to fold).
Turn: Td is a huge scare card, and it actually improves you if he calls. You should be betting 50-75% on turn, and fire the river too.
As played. I would just check river back and give this up. Turn was played too weakly imo, to rep on the river, but maybe im wrong, depends on how V plays
The only problem I see with betting the turn is the weird SPR - 1.17. So does it makes sense then to fire 75% of the pot to let him less than half pot behind?
I made a mistake reading this, didnt realize its a 3bet hand sorry! Probably checking back the turn here, as you pointed out SPR is awkward.
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