bluffing in a b/b/b line vs a nitfish
Posted by MatoStar
Posted by
MatoStar
posted in
Low Stakes
bluffing in a b/b/b line vs a nitfish
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25 (7 Players)
MP: $25.00
CO: $21.20
BN: $25.00 (Hero)
SB: $25.10
BB: $25.00
UTG: $29.67
UTG+1: $17.27
CO: $21.20
BN: $25.00 (Hero)
SB: $25.10
BB: $25.00
UTG: $29.67
UTG+1: $17.27
25/6 101
Preflop
($0.35)
Hero is BN with
5
6
, , , , ,
Flop
($2.35)
Q
4
A
, ,
Turn
($3.83)
Q
4
A
2
, ,
River
($9.33)
Q
4
A
2
9
,
12.78$ left.
Throwing balance out of the window for now: We need to fold out some Ax in order to have a +ev bluff (A3s and A5s).
Throwing balance out of the window for now: We need to fold out some Ax in order to have a +ev bluff (A3s and A5s).
K,Q,J,T,4,2 are the worst rivers in terms of fold equity. Those I wouldnt fire even if this combo is the bottom of my range. Other river cards are interesting, we need to fold out few of his Ax. In theory, its a pure bet I guess, but my question is: are you interested in testing his weaker Ax?
My intuition says, yes, on rivers like this, I like to bet vs this player profile. We are repping really strong and once we see a light call down by him, we can switch to full explo strategy (literally without river bluffs). However, by then I think its a bit assumptive to play with almost zero bluffs. Especially on this runout where QQ,AA,AQ are usually raised pre by him and other twopairs+ might potentially fastplay
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I guess this line is in general fine as villain is heavilly capped. I doubt a limp call by AA/QQ/AQ. But we need to be somewhat careful as we might overbluff here. I guess we tend to tripple KT/KJ here as well?
However in a limped pot it might even be a better choice to play your 56s this way as Villain might be limping stuff like AT/QT/KQ that have a hard time OTR. So unblocking these combos seems good here imo.
Agree.
Not sure, blocking KQ,QJ (he shouldnt have many AK and even AJ in his range), but moreover we have some showdown value. Since now we dominate most of his unpaired FDs. So maybe KJ,KT,JT without a club would be the way to go. But still I probably do like 7c6c,8c7c.. over K-high.
Do you have the VPIP/PFR and over how many hands?
25/6 over 101
I'd probably mix flop vs that and not pure bet range. After betting flop, give up turn with most worse bluffs (you have a pretty good one) and always give up river. These players tend to get very strong ranges by the river on boards that hit them and then underfold because their range is so strong by the river.
I do bluff a ton vs weaker players to give some context but my work has found these players and spots some of the worst to bluff (passive, tighter rec on a board that hits their range well).
I strongly disagree with the notion that the guy is capped as his range is fairly tight to be a rec and he'll have close to all AQ, A4s, 44 in addition to some A4o, AA, QQ, and AK (yes, passive recs do limp-call AA, QQ, and AK some of the time). Low PFR recs just calls more of their nutted hands than other profiles too leaving more 2p+ in their river range than any other player profile I know of.
Thats a good takeaway for almost all lowstakes players, thanks for sharing this mate!:)
Now I disagree. A4o with vpip 25 is really close limp and this range is already a bit narrower due to our iso raise. Yeah, they do limp sometimes QQ,AA, AK from time to time, but the chance is pretty low, given the fact they only limp/call pre (would expect l/3bet at decent frequency) and only call flop+turn. But agree that certain subset of players who only limp/call QQ,AA,AK will also often play passively postflop. Then, what proportion of guys like these (vpip/pfr) are implementing this strategy? My 70% confidence interval would fall into 15-30% of nitfish guys are actually limping sometimes QQ,AA,AK and slowplaying them postflop.
Whats my observation is that, those guys usually play fit or fold strategy OTF or used to have unbalance donking range towards value. So my play would be probably just one and done. Maybe in this case the turn barrel might be okay as well to fold out his KJ,KT + we picked up some equity. But I would probably bet larger OTF - 2/3 just to ensure they fold JT,KJ,KT type of hands. Because barreling this turn has also some hidden disadvantages:
1. His range is mostly Qx+, FDs, and KJ,KT (which may potentially fold OTF), that said, we are trying to fold out only KJ,KT so our fold equity isnt attractive enough..
2. Its just a trigger for forcing aggression. This case is a perfect example. We will often end up blasting off OTR, justified by narratives that we are in the bottom of our range, we unblock his FDs etc etc
100% down with river, nice play imo
flop standard I guess
unsure about turn tho, he isn't wide enough, probably would just give up there or overbet, not a 70% pot bet, gotta make him sweat how capped he is
All good in theory and practice, but we can make a better adjustment. If we have to overbet jam river to get ppl at our stake to fold a weak Ax here then it just means they are not folding enough, thus we should call behind with 56s pre
Calling most Ax in Villain's range is optimal strategy in theory against triple barrel here.
I agree with Kalupso here. Simplifying, I don't think that our job at these stakes should be to try to make fish fold top pairs on dry boards.
i like OPs play more and more as ppl tell him not to do it lol
This a sim I made where I tweaked pre and flop a bit to fit low PFR fish but left turn and river with equilibrium sub-game. Turn probably plays somewhat close to the equilibrium sub-game which is folding most made hands weaker than Ax, calls all AX or better and some Qx, and calls the best draws. Also XR the sets and some combo draws. Flopzilla is the more traditional software for this kind of range analysis where we are more concerned with combinatorics than the strategy itself.
The range contains 34% second pair or weaker and 66% top pair or stronger.
Those are the mixed hands that we need to get a fold from to profit when shoving and below for 67% pot.
Those are the "objective" specifics I'm able to come up with about the spot. Can we use this to make a strong conclusion? I'm not sure but I believe we at least have a better understanding of what needs to be true for it to be a good or bad bluff. To me, it seems like not the worst double BW board to triple barrel because there is a decent amount of "snap folds" like Qx and missed draws but low PFR fish tends to underfold on both Axx and 2 BW flops to 2 and 3 barrels in my database overall. Low PFR fish is the worst player profile to fire multiple barrels against because they arrive postflop with stronger ranges and slowplay more postflop while at the same time not floating too much junk. If I were to bluff, I'd much prefer a smaller size like 62% pot or something to target more of the snap folding hands. I think that would work out better against a range with close to 20% 2pair+ but with a decent amount of missed draws but overall I try to not bluff a ton on boards where low PFR fish have many decent hands.
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