Bluffcatch vs Flop XR+bet+shove on river flush card

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Bluffcatch vs Flop XR+bet+shove on river flush card

BB: 100
UTG: 100.50
HJ: 49.44
CO: 99.75
BN: 100 (Hero)
SB: 106.71
Preflop (1.50) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt Q J
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO folds, Hero raises to 2, SB folds, BB calls 1
Flop (4.50) J 3 9 (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets 3.50, BB raises to 12, Hero calls 8.50
Turn (28.50) J 3 9 6 (2 Players)
BB bets 19, Hero calls 19
River (66.50) J 3 9 6 8 (2 Players)
BB bets 67, and is all in, Hero calls 67, and is all in
Final Pot
BB has 7 A Hero has Q J Hero wins 197.50

V folds vs btn 2x 45%, XR 15%, T bet after F XR 71%, R bet after F XR 68%

Hello guys, this is my first post and I'd like to hear your thoughts on this hand, especially river play which seems the most interesting street here. I'd also like to ask if having the Qh here makes a difference for you or you'd rather have a better Jx than a blocker to straights and flushes, thanks

6 Comments

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Chael Sonnen 11 years, 7 months ago

I don't use a HUD, but those stats seem high. Especially turn and river.

He's only repping a flush here, and the Qh definitely matters.
You have to think that an aggressive opponent 3-bet most of his AhXh and KhXh combos.

Leaning towards calling, but I'm biased because I know the results.
Tip: Don't post results next time.

luckykiwi 11 years, 7 months ago

oh ye sure i wont, i didnt want to i just didnt see where i could hide it. I can't edit it now right? Do you think QhJ > KJ (no heart) here?

Chael Sonnen 11 years, 7 months ago

It doesn't matter very much. QT is a decent semi-bluff, but with a K on the flop, he's still have the second nuts/nut blocker. Having Kx also means you block 25% of his SD outs.

I'd rather have KhJc than QhJc, but I don't feel strongly about it.

luckykiwi 11 years, 7 months ago

do you think we need to keep betting around 60% of our flop XR on both streets? I've read something similar in Janda's book, but I'm not sure about it

RaoulFlush 11 years, 7 months ago

whats the samplesize? looks like a long way to go to get decent bet river after XR flop stats etc...if sample is somewhat decent...wp...otherwise its getting pretty close to maybe even spewy imo

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