Bluff this river in suicidal spot?
Posted by Hoothoot
Posted by
Hoothoot
posted in
Low Stakes
Bluff this river in suicidal spot?
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50 (6 Players)
BN: $38.40
SB: $51.04
BB: $44.73
UTG: $31.88
MP: $37.93
CO: $50.00 (Hero)
SB: $51.04
BB: $44.73
UTG: $31.88
MP: $37.93
CO: $50.00 (Hero)
Preflop
($0.75)
Hero is CO with
5
4
, , , , , ,
Flop
($13.75)
3
A
7
, ,
Turn
($33.34)
3
A
7
Q
, ,
River
($65.02)
3
A
7
Q
A
,
When villain barrels into 2 players OTT, the vast majority of his betting range has to be Ax and sets. My combo draw is too good to fold, but I don't really want to jam turn because I don't expect to have fold equity vs a likely Ax hand. I call and brick, and villain checks. I'm at the absolute bottom of my range here, but is it worth bluffing given that villain will frequently be trapping with Ax or a boat here?
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Don't like pre-flop. I would be surprised if you can make that call +EV.
While you can rep 77/33/AQ, it's a different story whether villain will actually fold a hand like Ax. If you think villain will fold those hands, then jamming is good because he's got a bluff catcher and it's hard for you to have a FD here and be bluffing. Without a read (against an unknown) I wouldn't try to make them fold Ax at 50NL, but against the right player type, I like jamming as played. He will also have some better FDs that will x/f on the river some non 0% of the time as well which you lose to when you check back.
Probably would close my eyes and jam this against reg, cuz u will have very few pure bluffs, but I see very reasonable points for giving up. Preflop should be a winning call against that sizing, ur hand plays well multiway
But given that bb is probably weeker players, I might give up (depended on reads/hud stats as well)
Folding pre. Calling is better if you close the action. These hands play better in higher SPR spots. Here you are against a @ 90bb BB and @ 76bb BTN.
Call me a nit but I am folding flop. You are drawing to weak BDFD outs, four 6's and your implied odds kind of suck.
As played, save your bet and don't force aggression in a spot where you have such little fold equity since he has so little behind. He will have, what, $18 behind looking at an $83 pot if you jam. I don't think he is ever folding enough here.
Fwiw I had a double gutter to the nuts (2 or 6), plus the FD on the turn. I presume you say my implied odds suck because we're <100 eff, but otherwise I'd say my implied odds are good given his huge range advantage here. And yeah the fact he checked with so little left behind felt like a trap all day long. Which is why I was so baffled/furious when I checked it down and lost to his 9d8d lol.
yeah, I totally missed the double gutter action which obv. makes a bid difference ;). I am at work so I should probably concentrate on that LOL.
Fold pre. I guess that once you get to the river you should go for it. As far as I can see you're only going to have this combo and maybe 8c7c and 7c6c to bluff with on this river. Also, this doesn't have to work often to show a profit and you always lose at showdown.
Hmmm I missed the small preflop squeeze sizing the first time around. Nothing like a Sauce response to make you double check your own reply... Preflop doesn't seem as bad given the sizing but I'd guess that it has to be close either way.
Depends also on your post-flop skill. Sauce might be able to turn a profit there, but that doesn't mean most other people can. I still think it'll be a -EV call for most people, perhaps not sauce lol. We're also not guaranteed a flop as we are not closing the action.
Thanks for weighing in James. I get that I can select a lot of stronger SCs to try this with pre, and maybe I should lean away from trying this when I don't close the action. However, the BTN appeared to be a fish based on his stack size, and I didn't anticipate a squeeze after he had just flatted my initial open.
I like how you played it.
I don't mind making a read here on river, I think it's quite close against the opponent you describe. It's kind of a hail mary bluff, where you're just hoping he's punting somehow and you get to win vs his air that's giving up.
Thanks for your input Ben. It was a puzzler, that's for sure, especially since it was vs an unknown playing Zoom (which in my mind makes his squeeze and barrels stronger).
Against a thinking player I like bluffing given how strong our range is. we happened to have our weakest combo so bluffing seems good. Against some1 whos not willing to fold trips I guess prob give up because villains range is prob really Ax heavy. Also he will have KJcc, JTcc, Ktcc, T9cc some percentage which are always folding
How come everyone is folding pre this seems like a pretty simple call.
The lower the SPR (Stack to Pot Ratio) gets, the less value hands like this have , we don't close the action preflop (though I'm not too worried about this), and we have bad relative position all the way through the hand. That being said, I personally misread the preflop sizing and now think that it's close and could go either way probably.
I think it may seem like a simple call on the surface but few players will be able to turn a profit in the long run. If you think it's an easy call then it may be a good idea to do some database analysis and see if flatting 3-bets in this position with low SCs or suited gappers has shown a profit relative to folding. Even for strong players this will be a marginally profitable call at best in the long run, and most would do better by simply folding imo.
You can jam the river here as a bluff....most of your natural bluffs come mainly from floated backdoors, and in multi-way pot vs. a double barrel you might not get to the river with those natural bluffs. If villain villain is nutted he's less likely to induce and just hope you have Ax or Qx and jams/bets. He has his own fd and gutter giveups, and maybe some poorly misplayed middle hand.
Yeah I realized that he's going to have fewer traps here than I had first suspected because he won't want to risk me checking down Qx, 88-JJ vs his value hands. So I should def be bluffing here more often than not. The only counterpoint that remains is that the SPR is tiny so he might hero call river with any weak made hands he was bluffing with since he's getting a great price.
Thanks for your comment, it confirms my retrospective thinking on this.
Calling pre seems obvious since the squeeze is really small
Honestly, I don't see which hand is gonna fold on this river after 2 barrels
3way pot makes it actually even harder to play, anyone raising the turn heads up ?
In fact we only have 23$ in a 65$ pot now... only his airs are gonna fold but which one ? I don't see any personnally, maybe some KJs KTs JTs stuff but I don't think we would have seen the same postflop action, his river check is actually quite surprising
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