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Bluff Catch or Bluff Pitch with Underpair?

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Posted by posted in Mid Stakes

Bluff Catch or Bluff Pitch with Underpair?

BB: $929.40
UTG: $600 (Hero)
HJ: $1570.70
CO: $600
BN: $1314.40
SB: $819
Preflop ($9.00) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt J J
Hero raises to $18, HJ folds, CO folds, BN raises to $63, SB folds, BB folds, Hero calls $45
Flop ($135.00) 2 K K (2 Players)
Hero checks, BN checks
Turn ($135.00) Q (2 Players)
Hero checks, BN checks
River ($135.00) 5 (2 Players)
Hero bets $40, BN raises to $120
Villain is someone I haven't played much with, but seems like a strong laggy regular. He plays mostly 5/10 and is 30/24/14 over 225 hands. SB is the 21/10 mark who likes to play his hands faceup. What is villain repping here? He doesn't strike me as the type to slowplay, and I also assume that he would cbet QQ.

Should I try to bluffcatch hoping to see AJ/Axs/who knows, or should I shove hoping he was going for value with AQ and now folds? Or should I just fold putting him on slowplays and 55?

10 Comments

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flatbreadpizza 12 years, 2 months ago
Really wierd line for the villian. I really am having a hard time giving him any type of range here. If I was forced to guess I'd say his most likely hand is AA and AQ . With no postflop reads to go on (do you know of any wierd lines he has taken in any pots?) I'd default to calling since the information here may be valuable and if he had either of those hands I believe his line failed at getting the most value even when we call.
Becks 12 years, 2 months ago
Reason for betting River? Since you are raising from UTG i dont think he will be 3betting TT, so what Hands worse Hands are calling? Plus by betting so small you are inducing a raise which i would not want to do with this hand. But maybe you do this with your whole range, so what exactly is your range here?
2blave 12 years, 2 months ago
I was looking for value from an underpair or AJ. I agree most people aren't 3betting a UTG raiser with either of those hands, but this guy is a lot wider than normal with his 3bets and he checked two streets. That was my reasoning at the time, but maybe checking river is still superior. If villain bets after I check should I call? If he has no TT- or Ax then it seems like I would still just fold.
JuStAWicKEdDud3 12 years, 2 months ago
As played I guess i would just call of curiosity. I think his river raise is really weird too. i could imagine he comming up with a hand like Q8s or something like that... but i think its still a bit close for villain to raise that so i would disscount a good portion of that... i guess im still be calling ^^
I guess im checking the river with the intention of check/raising. its a spot where you actually CAN check a hand like AK,QQ oder KQs 3 streets intending to c/r. And i dont really see him bluffing the river (maybe once of 100 cases or so) but if he bets i guess he usually goes for thin value with Q8s (Q2s-QTs) and cant really have a callingrange if you raise.
james 12 years, 2 months ago
I don't really like your sizing vs better players unless you're going to be somewhat balanced. If I had to guess I'd assume that if you had a hand like AQ here you'd probably bet closer to half pot. Also most people generally won't bluff with sizing this small making your range really defined when you do use this sizing. That being said, villain still has to be quite aggressive to be able to call here given that he should know he can't rep too much after checking twice.
2blave 12 years, 2 months ago
@James H, I'm not a perfect balance machine in every spot, but I am definitely not showing up with strictly weakish value hands here. This is the size I would bet with my whole range. My thinking at the time was that villain's range was mostly Ax and underpairs, and I wanted to present him with a tough choice when he presumes my range is mainly middle pairs and broadway type hands. I could probably even bet smaller tbh. The reason I can't have a lot of bluffs here is because of my preflop calling range, not my river sizing.

@snapfold, I folded because I felt that if he wanted to bluff he would have tried earlier on a board like this and thus he probably had a value hand, no matter how small his value range is. Like I said earlier in response to some advice I feel that checking the river is worth thinking about, although nobody suggested a plan for when villain bets after I check. Whether my bet here is wrong or right I do think the decision when raised is still interesting, which is why I posted the hand.

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