Bluff catch decision in 3 bet pot OOP NL25z

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Bluff catch decision in 3 bet pot OOP NL25z

Blinds: $0.10/$0.25 (6 Players) BN: $26.15
SB: $22.45
BB: $29.35
UTG: $29.91
MP: $34.77 (Hero)
CO: $69.08
Preflop ($0.35) Hero is MP with A J
UTG folds, Hero raises to $0.60, CO raises to $2.37, 3 folds, Hero calls $1.77
Flop ($5.09) K 6 6
Hero checks, CO bets $1.60, Hero calls $1.60
Turn ($8.29) K 6 6 J
Hero checks, CO checks
River ($8.29) K 6 6 J 8
Hero checks, CO bets $4.75, Hero

3 Comments

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JackPozzi 6 years, 4 months ago

Preflop I'd consider folding vs unknown, his size is kinda big and 3-betting ranges are tight-ish and linear on average in microstakes. Being deeper than 100bb might be a good reason to call though.

I'd check/fold flop, he is very strong on that board. I guess flatting is -EV even if he bets 100%.

As played your hand might be a breakeven call at best on the river, probably a fold because I think that bet is underbluffed, he has to be betting AQ a reasonable amount of the time, and also he is checking on the turn with a bunch of better hands potentially (AA,AK,KQ and slowplays KK,JJ if he 3-bets pf with it). The result is a healthy value range and just a few potential bluffs.

elbabbelino 6 years, 4 months ago

With the preflop and, especially, the flop call you implicitly claim to have plusEV calls there.
For that to be true, you need to be able to realize a sufficiënt portion of the pot on all runouts.
This is an above average runout range vs range after the flop. (Your equity should be higher OTR before action then it was before the turn was dealt.)
Therefore you should be able to realize a reasonable portion of the pot OTR, either by him checking back worse hands and/or by blufcatching.
Do you call OTR or fold? That Depends on your construction of his betting range. However, IF you decide to fold here (while being able to profitably call The 3B pre and OTF), it must be that villain were to be checking a good bit OTR. So after cbetting he should put the majority of his blufs in the check back turn plus check back river range.

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