Blind vs blind, bottom pair and NFD, double barrel bluff
Posted by belrio42
Posted by
belrio42
posted in
Low Stakes
Blind vs blind, bottom pair and NFD, double barrel bluff
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50 (4 Players)
CO: $50.25
BN: $27.99
SB: $51.75 (Hero)
BB: $77.11
BN: $27.99
SB: $51.75 (Hero)
BB: $77.11
Preflop
($0.75)
Hero is SB with
A
5
, ,
BB is TAG reg. He is a bit on the tighter side.
Flop
($2.50)
9
Q
5
,
Bottom pair + NFD. So I check.
Turn
($2.50)
9
Q
5
K
,
Turn is good for my range. I still have bottom pair + NFD, and I probably should check here again. Not sure why I bet here: probably was distracted.
River
($5.96)
9
Q
5
K
8
,
With Villain's turn call, there's a decent chance that I'm behind. Of course, he could also have a random hand with a diamond. Still, given my read on the villain that he's a bit on the tighter side, I think that there's a decent chance I'm beat here. And I would find it very hard to check/call here.
So I turn my bottom pair into a bluff. I have the nut flush blocker. A better hand to do this would be AJ with Ad, since I also block some straights. Still, I can make him fold out stuff like 9x, 77-66, or a weak Queen.
So I turn my bottom pair into a bluff. I have the nut flush blocker. A better hand to do this would be AJ with Ad, since I also block some straights. Still, I can make him fold out stuff like 9x, 77-66, or a weak Queen.
What do you think of my line?
Loading 12 Comments...
well played imo.
After the flop check and turn call. I think V's range is pretty capped, V has a lot of Qx,Kx with a diamond here that can't call a big bet.
I'd like a smaller turn bet though, and i dont think a turn check is better than betting. you want value for your Kx/2p/sets/straight from worse Kx, pair + 1 diamond type of hands here and setting up for a river bluff with hands like AdXx like as played. It's quite hard to get Kx to fold with just a river bet
Also best hands to bluff river with are AdJx, AdTx, but any Ad would be good though
Edit: fixed some combos in the value range.
Some sample ranges I came up during review:
My value range on river, which might take this line.: QQ,99, 55, KQs,AdKd,AdQd,AdJd,KdJd,AdTd,KdTd,Ad9d,Kd9d,Ad8d,Kd8d,Ad7d,Kd7d,Ad6d,Kd6d,Ad5d,Kd5d,Ad4d,Kd4d,Ad3d,Kd3d,Ad2d,Kd2d,AKo,KQo,KdJh,KdJs,KdJc,KdTh,KdTs,KdTc,Kd9h,Kd9s,Kd9c,Kd8h,Kd8s,Kd8c
(55 combos)
Bluffs on the river
AdJh, AdJs, AdJc, AdTh, AdTs, AdTc, Ad7h, Ad7s, Ad7c, Ad6h, Ad6s, Ad6c, Ad5h, Ad5s, Ad5c, Ad4h, Ad4s, Ad4c, Ad3h, Ad3s, Ad3c, Ad2h, Ad2s, Ad2c
(24 combos)
Curious why would you check flop with 99 but not with QQ/55, cant find any reasons to do so. If i would to check any flop set on a monotone board i'd definitely check top set and cbet lower set as top set heavily block V's calling range
Sorry, that was me just messing up when making the ranges. Fixed the combos now.
There are not many flush hands the villain can have as some of the high cards are accounted for so I would start with betting the flop small and if I do so also bet the turn bigger.
You checked the flop and now bet the turn I like the turn bet although the sizing is on the bigger side. You follow through on the river which I like but it is a risky game as what can villain have that checked the flop and called the turn?
Qx not that likely as he did not bet the flop
Kx very well possible
JT could bet the flop
Any hand with a diamond could have bet the flop but might elect to just call
9x very well possible especially T9, K9 and J9 coudl play this way to the turn
I think it will be very close between checking and betting.
I estimate Villlain's range on the river to be some good flushes, random hands with a diamond, small-to-mid pocket pairs, Kx, 9x, 5x. and some weak Queens without a diamond.
About your flop comment: in general, I don't like betting bottom pair on the flop. However, a small bet does make sense for protection/value/equity denial, especially because I can call a raise. In general, I am trying to find spots to increase my flop aggression. This seems like as good a spot as any.
The other issue is that I don't often use small bets on monotone flops. I don't use solvers, but what kinds of hands would want to bet small on such flops?
Basically you can bet as the aggressor any A,K,Q high flop as that hits your preflop opening range very well your more likely to have a hand like AA, AK, AQ, KK, QQ then you opponent as your opponent did not three bet. This is ofc more true when you open from early position :)
Here you have a range advantage and a flush draw so would almost always bet this hand you have loads of fold equity and if he does not fold you have loads of equity due to an over card a small pair and a flush draw. If he hit the board as well for e.g. top pair you still have 3xA,2x5,9xd is 14 outs! And as your opponent cant have the nut flush this is a more scary board for him then for you.
PokerSnowie gives the following and as you describe your opponent as a TAG (more GTO like then a fish).
Preflop: raising and checking are equal EV according pokersnowie
Flop: Only 0.05 more plus EV for betting versus checking and betting small 1/4-1/3 pot is preferred
Turn: Checking gets a higher (0.86 more) +EV then betting (smaller bet preferred)
River: Betting is slightly better then checking (0.06 EV) and if betted then 0.5 pot is preferred.
So PokerSnowie conclusion.
The flop can be bet or checked not much of a difference so type of game and/or opponent and/or your playing style and/or your image should determine what you do.
The turn should be checked.
Betting or checking the river is both ok but don't bet to large (1/2 pot seems the correct size)
I think you are right about checking turn. He has Kxdd in his range (flush), he has a bunch of Kdxx, he has Kxxd, etc. That K is a very bad card in this spot. It's an obvious call on the turn. I think he makes more mistakes when he bets turn after you check vs. when he calls/raises turn bet. If he checks back, so be it.
River seems fine. Can see checking too.
Turn is the spot I am curious about. I can run it in PIO later when I get home if you want me to. Post a screen shot if there is anything interesting.
I'd be appreciate if you can run PIO for this turn here.
I'd like to bet turn because as i stated on my comment above, V would have a lot of weaker KxXd or KdXx here and H would want to get value/protection from these hands with all his stronger Kx/2p/sets/straight as well as setting up for a river bluff when another diamond doesn't come with his Ad blocker/build the pot in case another diamond comes. OP mentioned V is on the tighter side so i think H wouldn't get bluff raised here frequently
Here is the sim. Obviously my BVB ranges might be different than Belrio42's but I am sure they will end up being quite similar. It prefers to check Adxx that are paired (Ad5x, Ad9x and AdQx) and bet Adxx that are not paired on the turn. I am sure this has to do with the added benefit of possibly hitting trips and then overtaking his paired hands.
On the river, using the line Belrio42 took, it likes betting about 1/2 the time (I admit, I had it set for a pot sized bet vs the 2/3 pot bet, but I don't think it will change much). Checking is actually higher EV, but it still bets it about 1/2 the time.
I did not node lock or get into too much crazy analysis so we can take this SIM for what it's worth.
Thanks for the solver/Snowie analysis. Was quite helpful.
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