Big draw no bueno?
Posted by Tom Willetts
Posted by
Tom Willetts
posted in
Low Stakes
Big draw no bueno?
Blinds: $0.05/$0.10 (6 Players)
MP: $10.00
CO: $10.92
BN: $16.24 (Hero)
SB: $13.23
BB: $8.11
UTG: $10.00
CO: $10.92
BN: $16.24 (Hero)
SB: $13.23
BB: $8.11
UTG: $10.00
Preflop
($0.15)
Hero is BN with
T
Q
, , ,
Flop
($1.02)
9
3
J
, , , ,
Turn
($5.67)
9
3
J
J
He's shown down 2 donk bets before, first one he called a BU open from SB and bet 3 streets with AJ on AJTXX, second one he bet 2 streets and checked the river with KT on T338Q.
I think his donk range is going to be fairly J heavy, so maybe calling flop would be better? Then when this turn rolls off I think I have to fold :(
Loading 3 Comments...
I still think this could be a call. You have serious implied odds, especially if he is the type of player to 3bet sets on the flop.
Calling and raising otf is both +EV, I'd size bigger tho when raising.
Argument for calling: Villain has 60bb behind, which you'll likely get when you make your hand.
Argument for folding: Kx and Ad might not be clean and there is a small chance that villain was donk/calling J9s, 99 or 33 and you're dead already.
Seems close.
Not sure if he would ever play aggressively with a hand similar to yours but even if we include some draws, his range has you crushed pretty hard and like antihero mentioned, we could already be drawing dead or dominated. For ~130 BB I wouldn't be too happy stacking off in this pot.
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