bet size OTR ip

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bet size OTR ip

we both got pot size left.

villian bet 2st on 3way.

so i put his range AK,AQ for fd about 10%. TT-KK 85%. strong hand 5% is AAA,444,222,A3,

1)will he check his strong hand because Ax come OTR?

2)if i target his TT-KK,will he call 50% bet size?

3)if i bet 35%, will i get bluff xr all in ? will you bet/fold for 33% ?

4)i feel if i was all in , he will only call full house and 10% AK,AQ?

4 Comments

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RaoulFlush 4 years, 7 months ago

I guess we have to take heros perceived range more into acoount here. So two important facts:
- Hero and Villain will have a very low % of bluffs in theire range given the runout.
- One player is AI so we will definetly have a SD

1) I doubt it. Hero shouldnt float two many random Ax hands OTF and OTT with one player behind that is super shallow. Its also a SRP and hero shouldnt have any strong Ax in his range. Therefore i perceive heros range as not too weak, i doubt that he will bluff/valuebet thin on the A anyways. So i would expect Villain to move on here with most strong hands.

2) Villain seems unknown, so vs a random player i would assume maybe. But given the low % of bluffs hero perceives, i still would prefer a smaller sizing. Its also hard to fold if we bet 50% and get shoved.

3) I doubt a bluff at all here. As said: there is not too many bluffs in both ranges and there will be a SD anyways. Ppl. tend to bluff less in this spot. That should also be the case because its a 1card straight on board and a pair that Villain cant credibly repp.
So B/F 1/3 seems solid to me.

4) Didnt do the math, but i guess getting called 85% of the time for one third is better than getting 10% called for pot. Esp. when the risk is high that we jam into a stronger hand.

Ryan 4 years, 7 months ago

I would just bet river very small and fold to a raise. Don’t think people bluff ever really with a player all in. I might go as small as 20-25%. Whatever sizing I think can get called by a weak weak hand.

JoeAdams1 4 years, 7 months ago

fold pre. am i missing something this hand just loses money

Ryan 4 years, 7 months ago

I would typically fold preflop as well, but if the CO is a recreational player, I think it becomes more reasonable to flat. I still would fold this and call 76s, 65s, 54s type stuff before, but think flatting is very close, especially for the small sizing

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