Best Play
Posted by Najamq
Posted by
Najamq
posted in
Mid Stakes
Best Play
Hero 1500
Middle age guy aka Villain 900
small blind 1400
This is a hand from a full live 2-5 game. I raised UTG +1 with AQ off suit to 15 Cut off calls and SB calls. Flop came Q 10 9 Rainbow. I bet 45 into 60. Cut off quickly calls and SB folds. Turn 9 of diamonds. I bet 80 into 150. He quickly calls. River A. I bet 80 into 310. He raises to 225.
How would you guys see this hand?
How many times I would have to make this call to be profitable?
What is the best course of action on the river?
If betting what is the best bet on the river?
My thought process on the river was to get a call from KQ.
Loading 7 Comments...
I'm bet/folding OTR, you'll definitely get calls from worse hands but if you get raised you're always beat.
You bet 80 into 310 he raises to 225 so the pot is 310+225+80 = 615
=> 615/(225-80)= 4.24 to 1.
So you'll need to win around 19-20% of the time, which you never do in this case.
I would bet around 120-140 OTR
Could be wrong though
I am not likely to win 19-20% after his raise but someone rightly point out that AQ is at bottom of my value range and its also better for my range then the callers range which favors a fold.
Why you think 120-140 OTR bet is good. You think 80 bet is exploitable ? It looks like a KQ ?
Some players would raise AJ or AK would raise to that bet by putting me on KQ ?
Sometimes I do that with nuts like AAs or QQs, if I suspect my opponent is super strong. I think it's a case balancing right ?
I think this small bet is designed for two things against different players.
1. Bet small to induce a bluff or make someone spazz aka call.
2. Bet small to get paid by a worse hand and fold to a raise If I think the opponent is not capable of exploiting the river bet.
It's not a matter of you getting exploited, it's just a matter of getting maximum value. I don't think most villains in live poker are able to exploit your small betsize OTR but they will call bigger bets than this with worse hands. Another thing is if you bet bigger you're not going to be in this spot thinking he could be bluffing or valuebetting worse because then he "never" is.
I don't really play a lot live but are people really raising AK or AJ OTR because that's pretty bad imo. I've never seen someone do this.
I don't know if we could be sure we're not good 20%. It really comes down to the opponent and the way the table plays (which country are you playing this game in?). In many live tables I'm never ever folding given the price because some donks will lol-raise KQ or AJ. And they will definitely feel obliged to raise AT. Timing of the river raise is pretty telling. A very quick river raise would tend to look strong to me, whereas I would have a very hard time thinking about folding if vilain takes 30seconds or more before raising.
In some other places where players play very nitty, you can snap fold your hand on the river, but I've never been to such places :p. They're myths to me.
Anyway in the end comes down to the players and your live reads IMO. In a 2/5 game you SHOULD be able to spot the players that would NEVER raise AT/AJ. And to spot the players that would have AK/AJ in their range and raise thinking their hand is good after you bet small (even if it's not sound logic). If you didn't develop any read (for instance you just sat), then shrug and call IMO (make exception and fold to the very quick check-raises).
Thanks for the reply Mr. Sneeze I think you are right it coming down to the opponent and the way the table plays. I am in UK. You rightly point out that If someone tanks raises then it favors a call depending on the player. For a standard opponent snap raise the river, its a fold.
What you think is the bet on the river to avoid being exploited on the river?
What do you mean avoid being exploited in this situation? You mean avoiding being raised? Because it can be great if people are check-raising you with AJ right?
I mean If raised then AQ is at the bottom of our value range and we can't call especially since A favors our range more then his.
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