Barreling against a strong range?
Posted by FaceMyAlterEgo
Posted by
FaceMyAlterEgo
posted in
Mid Stakes
Barreling against a strong range?
BN: $3048.85
SB: $555.79
BB: $620.09
UTG: $948.04 (Hero)
HJ: $811.03
CO: $1008.22
SB: $555.79
BB: $620.09
UTG: $948.04 (Hero)
HJ: $811.03
CO: $1008.22
Preflop
($7.50)
(6 Players)
Hero was dealt
A
J
Hero raises to $17.50, HJ folds, CO folds, BN calls $17.50, SB folds, BB folds
Hero raises to $17.50, HJ folds, CO folds, BN calls $17.50, SB folds, BB folds
Flop
($42.50)
3
Q
9
(2 Players)
Hero bets $26.38,
BN calls $26.38
I am going back and forth on how to play this flop.
Assuming no fish at the table I would open about: 55+,A8s+,A5s-A2s,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,AJo+,KQo, and so our equity vs QQ-55,AQs-A9s,A5s,KJs+,QJs,JTs,AQo+ is only 48,75% on that flop (Of course it gets better if villain 3bets QQ, which he might) Should we just check most of our hands or still cbet like AQ+ and most of our draws and some backdoors and then x/c Qx, JJ/TT, 9x and some draws?
I would assume villain to continue vs a bet with 9x+, JTs, KJs, KTs, and all FD's and maybe AxKd. Do you think He will raise sets and some draws, or call everything?
Assuming no fish at the table I would open about: 55+,A8s+,A5s-A2s,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,AJo+,KQo, and so our equity vs QQ-55,AQs-A9s,A5s,KJs+,QJs,JTs,AQo+ is only 48,75% on that flop (Of course it gets better if villain 3bets QQ, which he might) Should we just check most of our hands or still cbet like AQ+ and most of our draws and some backdoors and then x/c Qx, JJ/TT, 9x and some draws?
I would assume villain to continue vs a bet with 9x+, JTs, KJs, KTs, and all FD's and maybe AxKd. Do you think He will raise sets and some draws, or call everything?
Turn
($95.26)
3
Q
9
7
(2 Players)
Hero bets $71.19,
BN calls $71.19
Assuming we have cbet flop with most of our FDs and strong madehands, do we keep barreling most of that range and bluff with AdJ and AdK and maybe JTs?
Or do we check a wider range to let him fire his gutters, maybe AxKd, and bet only flushes and some draws, and x/c some flushes, sets and AQ-AA?
Or even check everything? Lots of strategic options on the turn imo.
Not sure how many hands villain folds on the turn, likely JJ/TT without a diamond, KJs, KTs, probably also JTs. What about QJ with no diamond or TT with a diamond?
Or do we check a wider range to let him fire his gutters, maybe AxKd, and bet only flushes and some draws, and x/c some flushes, sets and AQ-AA?
Or even check everything? Lots of strategic options on the turn imo.
Not sure how many hands villain folds on the turn, likely JJ/TT without a diamond, KJs, KTs, probably also JTs. What about QJ with no diamond or TT with a diamond?
River
($237.64)
3
Q
9
7
7
(2 Players)
Hero bets $180.82
Finally concentrating on our actual hand on the river, do we bluff here?
Depending on how wide villain calls turn, and given that he cant have many draws given that we have the Ad and he wont have KJo/KTo/JTo with 1 diamond we likely need him to fold most Qx in order for our bluff to be profitable.
I am not sure if villain would think that we may check flop or turn with some of the hands that are boats by the river? OR if he may assumes that we check some flushes on the river?
Depending on how wide villain calls turn, and given that he cant have many draws given that we have the Ad and he wont have KJo/KTo/JTo with 1 diamond we likely need him to fold most Qx in order for our bluff to be profitable.
I am not sure if villain would think that we may check flop or turn with some of the hands that are boats by the river? OR if he may assumes that we check some flushes on the river?
I am about to go into that hand in CRev, and will gladly share my findings here, after I get some replies about the various assumptions I am making. So please add anything that comes to mind, so that we can try and figure out this spot, because it has been giving me quite a headache.
Loading 12 Comments...
Am I crazy to like a river overbet with this combo? He's probably capped on that river and we block a pretty significant card holding the Ad.
I like your sizing here. Betting 3/4 keeps flushes in your range. There are not that many boats possible, and he may not believe you because you bet big on the turn.
You can expect Villian to raise some FDs and sets on the flop, so that reduces some of his continuing range.
I like it. Flop cbet is close, though I personally prefer to cbet, especially with Ad. Given the board runout I think we have no choice but to 3 barrel. We have the Ace blocker, so the top of his range looks something like KQ and very few flush combos.
My standard river sizing would be to bet 3/4 to pot. But I actually really like this..
Am I crazy to like a river overbet with this combo?
Would be a very tough call given his most likely holdings.
River overbet.
I mean if we want a bluffing range on this river this is the hand to include in it. I assume we are trying to play GTO and in so we definitely need a bluffing range. On the other hand if we have enough reads on villain to consider playing explo and eliminating a bluffing range that is fine as well. But readless vs standard player vluff for sure imo.
Also I don't agree that villain is particularly strong here. Sure he hasa. Few nutted hands but mostly my guess would be medium strength hands and maybe some mixed draws+pairs.
And as always apologies for the typos. My fat fingers together with iphone, not proof reading and not being able to edit are to blame.
agree that on this river w our hand we should bluff if opponent is reasonable.
but i think that many ppl now days slowplay sets & draws vs early positions, so he can still has boats & few BW flushes w no ace.
if i get it right when we bet this tern we almost always follow through otr w AdJ,AdK ? cause it looks like we wont get enough folds just by betting tern.
My biggest consern is flop, what we really gonna do with this hand if tern is not dimond nor ace or ten?
u r right that opponents range is not much weaker here & its tough spot for our range, so i up for checking most hands on this flop, but i didnt thought through any lagit strategy for later streets yet :P
Hum overbet is good, but you do have to balance it by overbetting probably all flushes and some overpairs, at least sometimes, otherwise it seems that one can read into the overbet as being polarized, with probably too many combos of bluff.
I dont think overpairs should bet thrice on this runout, let alone overbet
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