Attacking a capped range on the river against a TAG.
Posted by 4sthma
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4sthma
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Attacking a capped range on the river against a TAG.
PokerStars - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero: Qh Ac
V from UTG raises to 3 BB, Hero calls 3 BB. Everyone else folds.
V is a Passive NIT. VP 14/ PR 12/ AF 0/ Hands abbreviation 83
Flop : (Hero against V) Js 4c 5h
V checks, Hero checks
Analysis; It is a dry board where I block hands from Vs opening range. Ax type of hands and Qx (e.g., QJ) which constitute a large proportion of Vs range. V also checks which caps his range as he should be betting in an unselective manner.
At this point, I believe that I am a favourite against V`s range but I want to keep his range wide, as some JX hands are still in his range.
Turn : (7.5 BB, 2 players) Js 4c 5h 9d
V checks, Hero bets 5.4 BB, UTG calls 5.4 BB
Analysis: V checks again which shows real weakness. At this point, Jx in Vs range is highly unlikely considering my blockers. Also, There is a straight draw on turn which I block. V most likely has either two over cards, or a suited connector (eg, 87, 98), Basically V has a marginal hands. Therefore, I have attacked Vs check with a 75% pot bet and V checked me. At this point I thought that V either has a 9x, or pocket 77 or pocket 88. Jx was a tiny proportion of his range.
River : (18.3 BB, 2 players) Js 4c 5h 9d Kc
V checks, Hero checks
Analysis: Kc on the river has scared me a bit so I decided to check back. However, after post hand analysis, I have concluded that I should attacked Vs check with an over-bet as his range following another check was very weak.
Basically, Me having AQ, and considering Vs open from UTG. I basically block a large portion of Vs range. I block Vs Kx and Jx, i.e., AK, KQ, AJ, QJ. I also block a straight draw (Q10). V has opened from UTG so he is not going to open with a Kx or Jx with a weak kicker, so Kx or Jx are very unlikely to be in his range considering that V did not show strength at any street.
Most likely, V has something between TT, 9x, 88 or 77. Therefore, I should have attacked the V`s check with a 1.2x pot bet to make him fold anything worse that the second best pair.
Based on MDF. I need to steal the pot 54% of the time to profit. I block the majority of Vs premium range; Kx, Jx. Therefore, V has basically 77, 88, 9x, TT in his range. Given the sizing. I dont think that V will be defending blindly defending according to MDF with 44% of his range and will fold anything worse than TT which is only a tiny proportion of his range.
V shows 9h 8h (One Pair, Nines)
(Pre 40%, Flop 29%, Turn 86%)
Hero mucks Qh Ac (High Card, Ace)
(Pre 60%, Flop 71%, Turn 14%)
Is that a correct conclusion? Or Should I change the bet size?
Thanks for any help.
Loading 11 Comments...
Nice analysis…go for it next time. But i dont think we should overbet here.
Still some AK in villains range that takes this line and that i dont expect to fold.
So i would polarize my sizing around 75%
This should still be enough to target the range you pointed out to fold.
Thanks. I will do it then next time just in case I get trapped by AK.
I rechecked this in wizard. Solver even likes to bet much less here like block (which is 18% pot in my solution).
Makes sense somehow if we expect villain to call all Jx/Kx and simply every other underpair still cant call (theoretically).
Have a problem with your line, if you overbet river you rep quite thin there (QT; 99?). But I think it should get through there because you aren't suppose to have a lot of bluffs and it is hard to show up with enough amount
I do represent thin. I agree. However, it is a bit more of an exploit considering V`s checking of each street. Also, as a PFR I do have some pocket pairs and Q10 in my range, so this line would not be completely out of line I suppose.
RaoulFlush
As in 18% pot bet ? That is soooo little. I think I would call an 18% pot bet with pocket 22 considering the sizing :D It does make sense when you think of it though.
I am curious why we are flatting AQo IP vs UTG. I would 3 bet this all day long.
I know you are tagging him a NIT but we are looking at 83 hands. The sample is very small so it is hard to make too many assumptions.
How often does the BB squeeze in your pool?
I studied pre-flop ranges from J. Little book "Mastering small-stakes", and it says to call your whole range against UTG. Also, I dont like to 3-bet with speculative hands (AQo) against a tight range, because if I get called and I miss the flop. Im often in a difficult spot, if UTG bets into me.
BB was a REG, but from experience, I noticed that in 10/16 NL blinds do no attack UTG open with a 3-bet as often. Hence, I decided to cold call.
The biggest problem with flatting is the rake structure at 10NL. You are essentially returning on 90% of the pots you win (I am assuming 10NL is roughly 10bb/100 in rake). This problem compounds when you see flops, pay rake and lose hands.
I am trying not to include any showdown bias (we have all seen what he has shown down). 98s, while a decent starting hand, is likely not going to be included in a 14/10 (over a large sample) opening range from UTG. We are dealing with a sample that is only 83 hands. It is highly likely he has been sitting and mucking a ton of hands and running bad over the course of the sample.
Therefore, leaning towards playing tight vs this player is the right move. However, AQo is simply too good of a hand to not 3b and capture pots before the flop and before we get raked. Look how this particular combo would have played out vs a 3b. He folds pre, great. He calls this combo (and other combos), he simply check/folds vs a c bet. You have a huge range advantage vs UTG's 3b calling range on a ton of boards.
If you want to get more granular, there is a plethora of information that guy has given off during this hand. Some examples of notes I would have on this guy once I review this hand. You can take notes in PT4/HM so that you have them forever.
They would be as follows:
-RFI range UTG 98s+
-Missed c bet on good board for him (start stabbing vs his checks).
-Missed Delay C bet in good spot for him and x/c with turned middle pair (decide if the turn is good/bad for his range and I would start probing good turns quite often much like you did).
-Checks river over card looking to show down (should maybe follow through when we take the x/b line).
-Likely need to respect his aggression and act accordingly until you see bluffs
The more important part is how does he now perceive you (assuming he is looking at things in post session review).
My notes on you would be as follows:
-Flatting AQo pre IP vs EP opens
-XB AQ high on Jxx rainbow (when you stab flop, what does it mean?)
-Stabbing A high air on insignificant turns (he did have blocker to best turned draw, KQ)
-Willing to show down A high air after stabbing turn for 1/2 pot+ (what does it mean when you x/b/b??)
Thank you so much for this detailed analysis. That`s actually really nuanced and detailed approach.
I do agree with what you said about 3-betting AQo pre-flop, as you can steal the pot either pre-flop or on the flop. However, my approach especially then was to 3-bet in a polarised manner with my nuts (TT+, AQs+, KQs) and bluffs (A8s-, suited connectors).
I think that mu range would become more linear if I started to 3-bet a lot of off Broadway hands. However, 3-betting off Broadways does have a merit as well. My strategy at the time was just different.
I will start making notes about individual players as you get to play with the same people a lot. Thanks, much appreciated.
What do you think about over-betting the river after Vs c/c/c to make him fold all the middle pairs? Because, I did play today and I actually decided to over-bet the river after Vs c/c/c and he folded.
The hand is below:
Hand:
PokerStars - $0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has 8d 9d
Hero opens to 3 BB from HJ, and V in the BB calls 2 BB. Everyone else folds.
Flop : (6.4 BB, 2 players) 5d 4c Kd
V checks, Hero bets 2.44 BB, V calls 2.44 BB
I do not know anything about the V, as I have had only 20 hands on him at the time.
Analysis:
Thats a standard dry board, so Im just range betting especially that I have a flush draw and a backdoor gut-shot. However, V did tank for a moment before calling me, which made me a bit suspicious about his holding as he took some time to actually make a decision.
Turn : (11.28 BB, 2 players) 5d 4c Kd Ah
V checks, Hero checks
Analysis:
V has called me flop c-bet, which obviously has filtered his range. There is an Ace on the turn which uncaps V`s range. However, Ace is better for my range than his.
At this moment, I have put the V on the range consisting of; Weak Kx (K10, K7, K6, K5 and maybe K4) I block Vs K8 and K9. V would 3-bet me with TT so its unlikely to be in his range, but V would definitely call my open and my c-bet with 99, 66, 55, 44.
Weak Ax (A10, A9, A6, A5, A4, A3, A2) with a backdoor flush could also be in his range (although I block the flush draws), and some Broadway hands such as; Q10, Q9, J10 (he could call with these hands hoping to turn a draw or a second pair).
Basically. V`s range that has me beaten is: K10, K7, K6, K5, and maybe K4, 99, 66, 55, 44, A5, A4 (11 combos). Draw/bluffing range: A10, A9, A6, A3, A2, Q10, Q9, J10 (8 combos).
However, V`s has checked the turn again after tanking for a bit. Yet, again he has shown weakness, so trips (44, 55) and two-pairs (A4, A5) are very unlikely to be in his range.
Therefore, V most likely have a Kx (5 combos), or a middle pair: 99, 66 (two combos), or complete air; Q10, Q9, J10.
I decided to check because I do have position, so I can always attack his river check. Also, I wanted to get a free card to see if I can improve, as I don`t like to attack an uncapped range without a premium draw.
River : (11.28 BB, 2 players) 5d 4c Kd Ah 5s
BB checks, Hero bets 12.16 BB, fold
Analysis:
V`s has checked me for the third time showing real weakness. (Same as the first example). Basically, at this moment I am almost certain that he does not have nuts: boat (55, 44), V should have either check/raise me on the flop or attack me on the turn with 55 and 44. (Ace on the turn is good for my range, and a set is nicely disguised so that it is better for him to bet the turn with a set, or check raise the flop).
Ax is also unlikely as he should be betting the river for the majority of the time to build the pot.
So at this moment, I have concluded that V has either a weak Kx (5 combos), or a middle pair: 99, 66 (2 combos) or complete air: Q10, Q9, J10 (3 combos).
I have decided (learnt from the previous hand) that it is better to attack this river because:
- I have a range advantage: I have much more Ax and Kx than V in my range.
- V has capped his range by c/c/c.
- 100% of V`s range is either a marginal hand: Kx, middle pair or complete air. He is going to fold a lot against this sizing. I know from experience that in micro and low-stakes Vs are folding very often against an over-bet on the river. It is an exploitative approach. However, I believe that in micros and low-stakes it does work often enough to justify this approach. Especially against a wide range.
Because, Vs and REGs do not play purely GTO and will not always call me down as per GTO.
Based on MDF. I need to steal the pot 54% of the time to profit, and I actually beat 50% of V`s air and marginal range (5combos out of 10). Hence, I have made an over-bet, and V folded.
Hero wins 10.76 BB
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